Imo, the most effective ways to gain leverage on FH is not to chase low EO punts, but to build team stacks - particularly in defence. It's such a powerful strategy that DFS (daily fantasy sports) tournaments have stacking penalties to combat this There was only one def triple up in these drafts... - ThreadSky

jonnyc.bsky.social • 40 days ago

Imo, the most effective ways to gain leverage on FH is not to chase low EO punts, but to build team stacks - particularly in defence. It's such a powerful strategy that DFS (daily fantasy sports) tournaments have stacking penalties to combat this

There was only one def triple up in these drafts...

Reposted from Solio Analytics

Who are the popular picks on #FH34?

#FPL #FPLCommunity

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brunfpl.bsky.social•40 days ago

Please keep quiet before people start copying my optimal non-FH Brighton defensive triple up. Thanks JC

dexdesignkg.bsky.social•40 days ago

😂 - I'm so late to the table on this.....but i agree with the 'shssssh'

fpl-moggins.bsky.social•40 days ago

Triple Fulham defence is tempting. Third best xGC in away games this season. Am unsure, though, because their clean sheet odds are just 36%.

fplmoose.uk•40 days ago

You know the odds are made up right?

dexdesignkg.bsky.social•40 days ago

This is a very intriguing summary Jonny, very interesting seeing the comparison of strategy, something I've never overly looked at outcomes of. Love the insight 🫡

robtfpl.com•40 days ago

The Wolves DEF triple up is right there too

jonnyc.bsky.social•40 days ago

Pretty obvious who to go for!

fplmoose.uk•40 days ago

So that’s Aït Nouri, Alt Nouri but who’s the this one?

mcspoish.bsky.social•40 days ago

Would two defensive triple ups be a bit much do you think?

tmdaines.bsky.social•40 days ago

Depends what your aim is. Even one triple up this GW is a slightly losing strategy longer term in terms of EV and OR. But it is a way of taking some risk on if you want to increase the chance of a higher GW score, whilst also accepting the greater chance of a lower GW score.

dexdesignkg.bsky.social•40 days ago

The essence of a FH surely 🙃

tmdaines.bsky.social•40 days ago

FH is a great opportunity to take on some more risk, but there’s nothing to say that you should necessarily want the risk. If you are having a good season and are well placed in your key MLs etc, why not just max the EV as usual?

mcspoish.bsky.social•40 days ago

“Max the EV as usual” 🤔

jonnyc.bsky.social•40 days ago

You can take the same methodology the other way easily yeah, hedge across multiple defences to narrow your outcome distribution, cover the high EO players, etc.

A maximised EV team will probably do a lot of this but you can make a few swaps if that’s your target.

mcspoish.bsky.social•40 days ago

The issue with double defensive triple ups compared to a single one is that it takes up team slots that could go to higher EV mids/forwards.

So makes the risk to EV relationship/calculation really hard to get a handle on.

jonnyc.bsky.social•40 days ago

Yeah this week’s slate makes it a little trickier, it’s all a balancing act. If the field are not stacking much then even a double up or two is good leverage.

arronrichmond.bsky.social•40 days ago

Chelses defensive double is about as much as I'd be interested in. Clean sheets hard to come by all season for majority of teams.

tmdaines.bsky.social•40 days ago

Two double ups maybe, so you don’t lose access to a talisman with a triple up?

jonnyc.bsky.social•40 days ago

Yeah I like that structure too - I wouldn’t be dropping eg Salah and Isak unless you’re chasing a large gap in a mini league or something. EV is important too haha

fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social•40 days ago

I'd be curious to see a simulation that quantifies the rank gain from pursuing a defensive double or triple up versus going for a 10% owned versus a 50% owned asset

fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social•40 days ago

Based on what I'm seeing from captaincy polls, going Isak (c) over Salah (c) may be the best way to widen your outcome distribution. Not for the faint of heart, though...

ru55ell.bsky.social•40 days ago

It might be too early in the morning for me, but are you talking about a Newcastle defensive triple up and not getting Isak?

jonnyc.bsky.social•40 days ago

You could do that yeah, but probably a more extreme example of it given Isak’s expected value and projected ownership. Same with eg Liverpool and Salah.

A triple defensive stack is necessary ofc, just an under-utilised tool for people trying to really widen their relative outcome distributions.

slainlrf.bsky.social•40 days ago

I can't see any team give me chanch to go with stacks DFS tbh!

jonnyc.bsky.social•40 days ago

It can be quite boom or bust, and amplifies the agony of a late clean sheet wipe, but if you're chasing rank then it's better than picking low expected value players just because they also have low ownership.

Lineup composition and correlations can be just as effective as a differential pick.

jonnyc.bsky.social•40 days ago

If your main target is a minileague win, then think carefully about what your opponents might do, and how you can be smarter with your choices to block or take a leverage position.

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