As shown by my namesake (no relation) the BBC estimate of national poll equivalent is Reform on 30% in first place. Well into territory where FPTP becomes a significant bonus.

https://bsky.app/profile/robfordmancs.bsky.social/post/3lo7cslk4sk2s
Reposted from David Ford
I'm disappointed that Reform is at 28% or so in some polls, but I'd be horrified if that 28% of votes gave them 50%+ of seats.
Just as I don't believe Starmer's 1/3 of votes should have given him 2/3 of MPs.
The far right should be beaten by better politics in a fair system.

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