(Support Me By Subscribing/Donating) Federal Polling: LPC: 43% (+10) CPC: 41% (+7) NDP: 7% (-11) BQ: 6% (-2) GPC: 1% (-1) PPC: 1% (-4) Mainstreet / Apr 24, 2025 / n=1342 / Online (% Change w 2021 Federal Election) Check out details on @338canada.bsky.social at: 338canada.com/polls.htm - ThreadSky

canadianpolling.bsky.social • 37 days ago

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Federal Polling:

LPC: 43% (+10)
CPC: 41% (+7)
NDP: 7% (-11)
BQ: 6% (-2)
GPC: 1% (-1)
PPC: 1% (-4)

Mainstreet / Apr 24, 2025 / n=1342 / Online

(% Change w 2021 Federal Election)

Check out details on @338canada.bsky.social at: http://338canada.com/polls.htm

Comments

netnurse.bsky.social•37 days ago

Trump effect on our election in Australia on May 3. Labor is our centre-left party; Coalition is centre-right party. Labor ahead quite a bit.
https://theconversation.com/labor-takes-large-leads-in-yougov-and-morgan-polls-as-surge-continues-255026

btewgolf.bsky.social•36 days ago

@netnurse.bsky.social, have the Aussie Liberals renamed themselves Coalition?

brennantprice.bsky.social•36 days ago

The Australian Liberal Party and National Party have an effectively permanent coalition, commonly referred to as such. The parties formally merged in Queensland, although the seat winners there later get assigned to one of the Liberal or National party rooms.

dqui1994.bsky.social•36 days ago

Good!

rekounas.bsky.social•36 days ago

When Trump got in, the Conservatives were pushing hard for an election. Before the US election, I wanted them to hold off Canadian elections until the US elections. I knew that if Trump won, it would boost the left wing parties in Canada (4 of them). This has swung harder than I expected.

tsansom.bsky.social•36 days ago

Mainstreet had the CPC ahead or tied with the liberals last week.

kylekaybee.bsky.social•36 days ago

Normalizing with reality.

jasonvantaco.bsky.social•36 days ago

Get out and vote people.

krustyjuggler.bsky.social•36 days ago

Mainstreet has even recently had Pierre tied or even ahead, nationally. It's one of the outliers that would usually be removed to get an overall picture. But I also think voting day will be quite different than we expect, I'm not convinced polling is catching the younger vote (males) adequately.

jtjstock.bsky.social•36 days ago

Mainstreet has said publicly on X that their model more heavily favours highschool educated voters than most do, but they also still say their weekend numbers are weird(their sample size for highschool educated voters is also smallish), expect mainstreet to be showing PP in the lead by sunday/monday

cordeliakhb.bsky.social•36 days ago

Even in polls, amongst men 18-26 Liberals/Cons seem pretty split.

The only young men I know voting conservative are ones who fundamentally do not understand how the systems work.

btewgolf.bsky.social•36 days ago

Turns out the rumours are true and the CPC are in panic mode in Carleton with Pierre's survival as an MP on the line. Word is all Ottawa-area Conservative resources are being redirected to try and save Carleton:
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/pierre-poilievre-tight-race-ottawa-riding

deejayvee.bsky.social•36 days ago

Go Fanjoy Go!

abcgirl.bsky.social•36 days ago

I would love love for PP to lose his riding.

btewgolf.bsky.social•36 days ago

Interesting CBC article stating within that on Sunday Pierre will hold a rally in Carleton. Wonder if that's a sign he's in trouble? I also just heard on the radio that Carleton was the #1 riding for advance polls turnout with > 43,000 ballots already cast!
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-dark-picture-closing-pitch-1.7517815

kdmacleod.bsky.social•37 days ago

@gtconway.bsky.social Mainstreet is sort of the Rasmussen of Canada.

shannonpeel.bsky.social•37 days ago

What do you mean?

givemesanity.bsky.social•37 days ago

Wiki says Rasmussen is ranked 24 out of 28 pollsters. They lean to the right, apparently.
I have never understood why 'Polling Canada' highlights Mainstreet's numbers out of the list at 338canada.com/polls dot htm.
338Canada dot html 'weighted average' is L 42% and C 38%. (Still too, too close.)

shannonpeel.bsky.social•37 days ago

Way too close but when you look at ridings the LPC has more seats safe and likely safe

Add up the safe, likely, and leaning … LPC has 168 seats so they only need 4 out of 48 toss up ridings

bevymart.bsky.social•37 days ago

Why does anyone bother with national polls?

It’s not a national election. It’s a seat by seat election

bets1977.bsky.social•36 days ago

dinsdale-pirannha.bsky.social•35 days ago

Not good. That puts the fascists within the margin of error. This is effectively a dead heat, and if there is the same effect is happening as in america, the fascists are actually ahead.

rekounas.bsky.social•36 days ago

Mainsteet is the only one that has CPC at the 40-41%. The rest have them between 35-38%, which is more of what I would expect. I think the CPC broke 39% in 2011 elections and that only gave a majority at the time with 166 seats.

manssearch4meaning.bsky.social•37 days ago

Noooo! Stop with all your facts and reality based knowledge. I want hopium. I want a Liberal majority.
☹️

kennypowers55.bsky.social•37 days ago

It is a liberal majority. 182 seats.

manssearch4meaning.bsky.social•37 days ago

I looked it up too. 182 seats if the election was today. I worry the liberal lead might be slipping away. (Sorry, 2 Trump wins has left me with PTSD.) If Carney has a strong majority, I believe he will have a stronger position to deal with Trump. Oh well I have voted already now we wait.

kennypowers55.bsky.social•37 days ago

Hahaha, trust me, I'm the same. That's prolly why I'm still awake 🫣

damningindignities.bsky.social•37 days ago

Same. I check this more often than the weather. Can’t affect either outcome!

amethyst--oasis.bsky.social•37 days ago

I’ve already voted for my Liberal member and dearly hope Mark Carney gets a majority. He deserves it… and more importantly, Canada deserves it! 🇨🇦

@mark-carney.bsky.social
@gtconway.bsky.social

shannonpeel.bsky.social•37 days ago

Help Mark Carney get elected

Tell people

Your local LPC candidate will need help on this weekend and Monday to help get the vote out

They’ll need

Drivers
Data entry
Scrutineers
Phones
Coffee runners

Lots to do to get the vote out.

Be part of this historic election

yimmysue.bsky.social•36 days ago

Canada is in the crosshairs of a lunatic....and Canadians say they'll stick with the same party that put it here.

rgd89.bsky.social•36 days ago

Last I checked, the Liberals weren't responsible for Trump getting elected. That's like saying "Local resident gets mugged and it's their fault for walking down the street"

thedanalytic.bsky.social•36 days ago

Thank you for responding to this troll, so the rest of us don’t have to and can simply just block and move on.

rgd89.bsky.social•36 days ago

Pretty sure he's some American that just doesn't like Carney because the internet told him so.

yimmysue.bsky.social•36 days ago

try again, sweetie.

yimmysue.bsky.social•36 days ago

I see your problem.
You can read, you just can't comprehend.

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