Probably the best example of a guy going from poor college FT shooter to elite NBA shotmaker is Embiid. But he had otherwise amazing touch (that showed up in other stats). And he also had the excuse that he was literally learning basketball at the time. - ThreadSky

avi-wa.bsky.social • 14 days ago

Probably the best example of a guy going from poor college FT shooter to elite NBA shotmaker is Embiid. But he had otherwise amazing touch (that showed up in other stats). And he also had the excuse that he was literally learning basketball at the time.

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common-nocturne.bsky.social•14 days ago

Looking only at highlights Bailey’s look outer-worldly compared to VJ. But there is a lot junk in involved, dribbling into spinning contested shots. While VJ is making the right play, over and and over. and is also athletic.

common-nocturne.bsky.social•14 days ago

The shot does look good though, would wager that the % goes up. Fear he’s a MP, Tobias, Kuzma type which would be a bad, and painful outcome.

avi-wa.bsky.social•14 days ago

yeah i'm sure the % goes up. but even having that on your resume is super troubling to me. people are comparing him to guys like KD. KD is incapable of having a 30-game stretch where he shoots 69% from the line. he's just too good a shooter for that.

common-nocturne.bsky.social•14 days ago

Yeah he has a smoothness in his scoring which is alluring. But KD might be top 5 all time, and has extremely my good feel for the game, and yeah could probably shoot 60% FT with eyes closed .

avi-wa.bsky.social•14 days ago

for sure. and i just wish there was *one* meaningful statistical indicator that suggested he was going to be elite on offense. But i can't find it.

Scoring efficiency. FT%. 3P%. FT frequency. Assists. Team Performance. Paint touches.

They're all mediocre to awful.

avi-wa.bsky.social•14 days ago

And the thing is...I'm all about Best Player Available. So all the stuff about whether he fits or doesn't with the current Sixers doesn't matter to me. I just need something in the statistical profile that pops.

norseofbroad.bsky.social•14 days ago

it seems to me like the people who have Bailey at #3 haven't updated their scouting report since HS. Everyone who had to watch a lot of Rutgers seemed frustrated with him and his shot selection was atrocious. Also, him coming in 2 inches shorter than expected at the combine won't help.

norseofbroad.bsky.social•14 days ago

Hollinger really doesn't like (has him #12 and said he'd be out of top-20 if not for upside) -- and thinks that Edgecombe/Harper for #2 is a real debate.

avi-wa.bsky.social•14 days ago

wow. the hollinger thing is very interesting.

i would be ok taking the swing on him if (a) he got into the paint a lot or (b) had elite shooting indicators. but he's 0-for-2. it feels like people are looking at his highlights and trying to conjure a player that doesn't exist.

norseofbroad.bsky.social•14 days ago

yeah, not exactly a promising eval. And I feel like Morey/Hollinger are often on same page (see: Reed, Paul)

norseofbroad.bsky.social•14 days ago

It's hard not to trust Morey with the draft -- so I'm glad it's his call.

avi-wa.bsky.social•14 days ago

Generally agree...although it's strange to think he's *never* picked in this part of the draft. I think his highest selection ever was #8, which he famously traded for Shane Battier.

And in fact the guy he traded (Rudy Gay) is a decent comp for Ace Bailey.

norseofbroad.bsky.social•14 days ago

yeah that is pretty crazy. I love the trade down and get a veteran and still get Kon or someone in that range.

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