Any bored climate science pals want to help me get this problem unstuck from my brain? Suppose it's 2050, the global CO2 emission rate has remained constant since 2025, and CH4 has now caused as much total warming as CO2. What was the CH4 emission rate from 2025-2050 (assume it was constant)? - ThreadSky

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kevinjkircher.com • 4 days ago

Any bored climate science pals want to help me get this problem unstuck from my brain?

Suppose it's 2050, the global CO2 emission rate has remained constant since 2025, and CH4 has now caused as much total warming as CO2. What was the CH4 emission rate from 2025-2050 (assume it was constant)?

Comments

jdavis777.bsky.social•4 days ago

To understand the differences, you’ll need to bring into your calculations how long each stays in the atmosphere. CO2 half life is probably on the order of 100x CH4.

jdavis777.bsky.social•4 days ago

Along with, of course, the emissions rates and GHG potencies.

kevinjkircher.com•4 days ago

Alternatively: Suppose the global CO2 and CH4 emission rates stay constant at their 2025 levels. In what year, if ever, will CH4 have caused more warming than CO2?

OR: Same question, but suppose we ramp the CO2 emission rate down to net zero by 2050, but keep emitting CH4 at today's rates.

kevinjkircher.com•4 days ago

More generally: Under what conditions will climate change become more a problem of CH4 than CO2?

marcdefaoite.bsky.social•4 days ago

Sounds straightforward (I thought) but hard to find a reliable figure for CH4 GWP for 25 years. If I we use wikipedia's figure of 81.2 for 20 yrs and say 25, the CH4 emission rate is less that 1.5%of C02.
(caveat - not a climate scientist, just a nerd on a dying planet with an internet connection)

marcdefaoite.bsky.social•4 days ago

I ran different figures through ChatGPT and it spits out answers in the range of Methane emissions being 1.15% to 1.7% of CO2 emissions. Not a precise answer, but a fairly narrow ballpark.

kevinjkircher.com•3 days ago

Interesting approach, thanks!

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