The map design really affected Splatoon 3's casual playerbase retention way more than meets the eye. The maps can make this game so draining when you're just trying to hop on for the sake of playing a few games, Splatoon 2 had a noticeably more active casual playerbase near the end of its span (imo)
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the modes don't help, there isn't a chill space any more. opens is where people want to chill but also where full stacks go on and destroy everyone