The “international travel to the U.S. is taking a dive because of Trump” story turns out to be mostly about Easter falling later this year (though there’s something to it for Canada). Important to keep confirmation bias in check. (Gift link: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...) - ThreadSky

leonardocarella.bsky.social • 45 days ago

The “international travel to the U.S. is taking a dive because of Trump” story turns out to be mostly about Easter falling later this year (though there’s something to it for Canada). Important to keep confirmation bias in check. (Gift link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/04/30/world/us-travel-decline.html?rsrc=flt&unlocked_article_code=1.F08.0Ebi.MGVbRqFR5yUe&smid=url-share)

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casmudde.bsky.social•44 days ago

Both true and overstated. Canadians constitute a quarter of all international travel, so their drop of 20% alone means an overall drop of 5% of ALL international travel. I’m sure Germans are a not insignificant group too. And then, as everyone else has noted, there is the time-effect.

dougb1.bsky.social•44 days ago

There’s a massive reduction in cross border traffic from Canada into the United States. You might want to check up on that data first before indicating that there isn’t a dive in international travel to the United States.

michaelthornhill.bsky.social•44 days ago

Indeed. But might the presentation of this data be more about the confirmation bias of the NYT? Canadians might well be seen as the canary in the coal mine.

dwmacleod.bsky.social•44 days ago

However, I could book a return flight from Edinburgh to New York direct for next month for less than £400 if I wanted. Haven't been able to do that for years.

johndaledalton.bsky.social•44 days ago

Dare I suggest that international travel to the US so far has not fallen off the edge, but that as the US as a destination crosses the trust thermocline it will be severely hit and recovery will be difficult. #bbcaq

mabbes1408.bsky.social•44 days ago

And those HS/ICE border detention stories won’t help…

dickp.bsky.social•45 days ago

The same way that Chinese ships take a month to get to the US, leisure visitors to the US will come if they booked before the current lunacy. Figures for bookings made since then will tell a different story. I know personally at least 4 people who have indefinitely deferred plans to visit.

pipobscure.com•44 days ago

I’m also among those that have canceled planned trips to the US.

anxietyprime.bsky.social•44 days ago

anecdotally yes... I know some friends who went to Mardi Gras in New Orleans this year so it was all bought and paid for before the election results, whereas my planned trip with a friend to Austin this summer was just in the planning phase and we cancelled as soon as Trump was confirmed the winner

jackkessler.bsky.social•45 days ago

See also the idea that football fans won't travel to the US next year for the world cup. Have you, erm, seen where some of the recent editions were held?

fatboyfat.bsky.social•44 days ago

Your typical football fan would right now be making travel plans were the next WC to be held on the surface of Venus.

jackkessler.bsky.social•44 days ago

A surface hot enough to melt lead. So best make it a day trip.

fatboyfat.bsky.social•44 days ago

Your standard Leeds fan would put some Factor 5 on and go for it.

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