The forefront guys know it's fake. It's very obvious to me that they're not true believers. They spin, they dance, they kick cans down the road. There's only a belief in money. But they know an end is coming, just not when. They're just riding the wave.
It's complicated inside major tech companies. There's a lot of bullshit but a lot of genuinely impressive results for b2b products, while everything public facing is mostly trash. I think vibe coding is nonsense, but kinda scary that env setup can be automated
There are some charlatans for sure, I think Sam Altman is one of them, bc he was taken off guard by what ChatGPT really was until people started using it and he switched up how he talked about it. *Most* of these guys do not get it at all
Like we just got a massive, hilarious demonstration of how Elon doesn't get the tech with how he attempted to force the bot to say one highly specific thing in many contexts, so it just started saying it all the time. He doesn't know what an LLM even is
Sam innately knows that this thing is just a somewhat more convincing chatbot. The AGI talk is all downstream from him noticing how people felt like they were talking to the computer god after public testing. But even someone like Satya Nadella seems to think these really are useful for everything
I can guarantee you Nadella's layoffs will bite him in the ass badly. He doesn't seem to realize what it means to have an LLM spit out code at his engineers for complex software. He's just going for it because he thinks it works in a way it obviously doesn't
I think the idea there is widespread earnest belief in something like AI 2027 (there probably is!) is *much* scarier than what feels to me like a much more ‘normal’ scenario, where circumstances are ‘just’ ripe for a lot of Clay Davis-type folks to run ‘man with his hand on the faucet’ scams.
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Tech cultists are literally unhinged millenarians with more power than perhaps any private people in history