good article on the major question in polling going forward: do you just throw up your hands and add 3 points to the R number because of nonresponse bias?
my guess is that for midterms the answer is no and those firms will perform poorly, but who knows for a presidential election without Trump
my guess is that for midterms the answer is no and those firms will perform poorly, but who knows for a presidential election without Trump
Reposted from
G Elliott Morris
New article from me about polling in 2024/going forward.
Are the pollsters who did the best in 2024 and 2020 on to something? Or are they just pushing their data toward Republicans and getting lucky when everyone else gets hit by nonresponse?
Link: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
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Are the pollsters who did the best in 2024 and 2020 on to something? Or are they just pushing their data toward Republicans and getting lucky when everyone else gets hit by nonresponse?
Link: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
🧵
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