Another tenet of vaping theology shattered by new analysis of NZ youth vaping. It does not "displace" smoking. It slows its decline. theconversation.com/the-tobacco-... - ThreadSky

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simonchapman.bsky.social • 63 days ago

Another tenet of vaping theology shattered by new analysis of NZ youth vaping. It does not "displace" smoking. It slows its decline. https://theconversation.com/the-tobacco-lobby-claims-vaping-is-displacing-youth-smoking-a-close-look-at-the-evidence-tells-another-story-252283

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jonathanfoulds.bsky.social•62 days ago

Wait, the claim used to be that the increase in vaping would lead to a big increase in smoking among kids. This paper appears to claim that as daily vaping increased from 1 to 10%, daily smoking declined to 1.2%, but that it would have declined to 1% anyway without any vaping. No sig increase.

jpjk.bsky.social•62 days ago

Is there a reason you only look at daily?

jonathanfoulds.bsky.social•62 days ago

Yes. "Ever use" is not as sensitive to time... it can never go down within individuals, right? Also it is unclear whether trying a product once, years ago, is particularly meaningful. Regular use IS meaningful, if that's all you have, but daily is the best indicator of likely ongoing addictive use.

jpjk.bsky.social•62 days ago

Looking at all the evidence:

For daily users, vaping did not reduce smoking

For ever or regular users, vaping did the opposite: slowed the decline in smoking

jpjk.bsky.social•62 days ago

That seems like a reason not to exclude daily.

It doesn't seem like a reason to exclude other use patterns.

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