1) Status quo: Russia can sustain the current war intensity for 2–3 more years.
2) Partial relief would aid the war effort without altering the broader economic outlook.
3) Reinforced sanctions, especially on oil, could cut revenues, force harder spending choices, and strengthen Ukraine’s leverage.
2) Partial relief would aid the war effort without altering the broader economic outlook.
3) Reinforced sanctions, especially on oil, could cut revenues, force harder spending choices, and strengthen Ukraine’s leverage.
Comments
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-wartime-economy-sugar-high-hangover
How much would change if the EU were to apply secondary sanctions on any company or country doing business with Russia?
We could make an example of a smaller country like the UAE which facilitates Russia by allowing it to avail of financial services.
So any 3rd/non-EU country hit by secondary sanctions could easily win in court, based on this hypocrisy....
I’d only quibble with Bank of Finland’s assessment that Russia’s statistics aren’t spiked (see: ROMIR’s inflation report that was cancelled showing inflation at 20%).
Growing VAT revenues point to higher inflation, too.
https://bsky.app/profile/wilhelmusjanus.bsky.social/post/3lp3qeeq7es2i