Here's a quick update to the @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff tracker to incorporate the add'l 50% US tariffs on China & China's add'l retaliation.
• The average effective US tariff rate is now 26.8%, the highest since 1903.
• US real GDP growth is -1.1pp lower over 2025.
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• The average effective US tariff rate is now 26.8%, the highest since 1903.
• US real GDP growth is -1.1pp lower over 2025.
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Comments
• The unemployment rate rises 0.6pp by 2025 Q4, & payroll employment is -760K lower.
• US GDP is persistently 0.7% smaller in the long-run, equiv. to -$200bn in 2024$.
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• Families at the bottom lose $2,100. In the middle, $3,600. At the top, $9,800.
• Apparel prices +45%. Auto prices +20%. Food prices +5.6%.
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