With the LP.8.1.* variant dominant from the global perspective, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave. The leading contenders at this point are XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1), and XFG.*. #COVID19 #NB_1_8_1 #XFG 🧵 - ThreadSky

mikehoney.bsky.social • 2 days ago

With the LP.8.1.* variant dominant from the global perspective, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1), and XFG.*.
#COVID19 #NB_1_8_1 #XFG
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Comments

stephanie-can-fly.bsky.social•1 day ago

Where can you find any info on Covid? I’m not seeing any reporting at all.

mikehoney.bsky.social•2 days ago

With the splintering of XFG.* into sub-lineages, I have switched my analysis to my variant “L2” groups.
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mikehoney.bsky.social•2 days ago

I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the dominant LP.8.1.*. Note the recent sample volumes are quite low, so the right side of this chart might not be a representative picture.
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mikehoney.bsky.social•2 days ago

NB.1.8.1 is descended from XDV.1.5.1. XDV was a recombinant of XDE and JN.1. XDE was a recombinant of GW.5.1 and FL.13.4 (both descended from XBB), so this represents the last current variant with any non-JN.1 ancestry.
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mikehoney.bsky.social•2 days ago

XDV.1 added the F456L mutation, then XDV.1.5 added G184S and K478I. NB.1 then added Spike mutations: T22N and F59S. Then NB.1.8 added the Spike Q493E mutation that characterised KP.3.1 FLuQE – an example of convergent evolution. Finally NB.1.8.1 added the A435S mutation.
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mikehoney.bsky.social•2 days ago

NB.1.8.1 was initially reported from Hong Kong, rising to 100% frequency. It has also shown sustained growth in several other countries in the region, plus Canada and the US - all adding to its credibility.
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mikehoney.bsky.social•2 days ago

Globally, the XDV.* variant clan is showing strong a growth advantage of 5.8% per day (41% per week) over the dominant LP.8.1.* variants. That predicts a crossover in mid-May.

Strong growth advantages like that could point to higher waves than those seen for LP.8.1.*.
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