So what are the decoys made of, then? My understanding is that most decoys are mylar balloons - they'll get filtered out by the upper atmosphere because they're not as dense as a warhead.
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Certainly if an ICBM is carrying 10 warheads AND many decoys, the decoys are going to be balloons...
If the ICBM is only carrying 3 warheads and the other 7 slots are solid decoys, then the ABM system is relying on chance - but if it stops five random warheads...
...the chance of three detonations is about 20%, two detonations 36%, one detonation 30%, no detonations 13%. And the attacker can't know which of the warheads will get stopped - will it be the one aimed at the rail station or the one aimed at Congress?
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If the ICBM is only carrying 3 warheads and the other 7 slots are solid decoys, then the ABM system is relying on chance - but if it stops five random warheads...
So DC gets even more missiles-elsewhere less.