The last General Election has seen much talk about Reform UK's popularity in so-called 'left-behind places, characterized by socioeconomic deprivation. Looking at variation in deprivation levels across the UK's constituencies suggests this pattern exists, but only partially. A short thread. 🧵 - ThreadSky

juliusk.bsky.social • 149 days ago

The last General Election has seen much talk about Reform UK's popularity in so-called 'left-behind places, characterized by socioeconomic deprivation. Looking at variation in deprivation levels across the UK's constituencies suggests this pattern exists, but only partially. A short thread. 🧵

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juliusk.bsky.social•130 days ago

Of course, these are just aggregate patterns, but they fit quite nicely with this interesting paper showing socio-economic heterogeneities within the Brexit support base.
https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lgajn6fn3g2k

juliusk.bsky.social•149 days ago

The map on the left displays Reform UK's vote share in the 2024 election in all constituencies where it fielded a candidate. The map on the right displays the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), capturing deprivation in income, employment, education, health, housing, crime, and living environment.

juliusk.bsky.social•149 days ago

The UK's IMD is created by respective government statistical agencies. A higher score on this index implies higher levels of deprivation (darker coloring). Looking at the two maps, there appears to be a substantial overlap between higher deprivation and higher support for Reform.

juliusk.bsky.social•149 days ago

By combining these two maps, spatial clusters are revealed where this pattern holds and where it does not. Deep/darker blue coloring indicates high Reform vote share and high deprivation, while intense green coloring indicates high Reform vote share but low levels of deprivation.

juliusk.bsky.social•149 days ago

Areas colored in more intense pink indicate high deprivation but low vote shares for Reform UK. Lastly, areas in the light blue indicate little support for Reform and also low levels of deprivation.

juliusk.bsky.social•149 days ago

Places with high deprivation and high support for Reform (darker blue) are often found in northern parts of England and often in seaside towns. Examples include Sunderland, Great Yarmouth or Boston & Skagness, still affected by decline in maritime industries, fishing and traditional manufacturing.

johndaledalton.bsky.social•149 days ago

Blackpool and W Cumbria?

juliusk.bsky.social•149 days ago

Another fitting example is Clacton on Sea, Nigel Farage's own seat with a 46% vote share for Reform. An attractive seaside resort until the 1970s, Clacton is now among the 1% most deprived areas in England, with low levels of disposable incomes, educational attainment and economic productivity.

yusufimaadkhan.com•149 days ago

Thanks for sharing this! Isn’t the Index of Multiple Deprivation constructed differently for Wales and Scotland? (variable choice/data availability/weighting).

This usually obstructs meaningful comparisons between regions. Unless you’re using an adjusted version?

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