V sharp moves in US govt bonds.
There’s an easy narrative that this is the markets losing faith in the US. That would be a nice mortality tale. But the reality is probably more concerning in the short term.
The market could well be breaking because of structural issues in how it trades & volatility.
There’s an easy narrative that this is the markets losing faith in the US. That would be a nice mortality tale. But the reality is probably more concerning in the short term.
The market could well be breaking because of structural issues in how it trades & volatility.
Comments
Are National Banks selling part of their reserves as well?
This time the worry is the cash-futures basis trade. Good back ground from
@tobyn.bsky.social in March https://www.ft.com/content/c7cd717d-28dd-42e5-8d6d-c838ba53eea5
Bloomberg in 2023 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-20/inside-the-basis-trade-hedge-fund-traders-dominate-gigantic-bond-bet
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2025-04-09/hedge-fund-risk-shadow-banks-are-too-big-to-stay-in-the-shadows