Our team modeled the Reconciliation 2025 energy and climate provisions. As currently written, the bill text would dramatically raise household energy costs, decimate the clean energy industry, and cost hundreds of thousands of jobs while dropping GDP. energyinnovation.org/report/asses... - ThreadSky

robbieorvis.bsky.social • 19 hours ago

Our team modeled the Reconciliation 2025 energy and climate provisions. As currently written, the bill text would dramatically raise household energy costs, decimate the clean energy industry, and cost hundreds of thousands of jobs while dropping GDP. https://energyinnovation.org/report/assessing-impacts-of-the-2025-reconciliation-bill-on-u-s-energy-costs-jobs-health-and-emissions/

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tzraick.bsky.social•13 hours ago

I think if anything you’re over estimating total recoverable eur. Tight well production decline will probably be faster. A lot faster.

robbieorvis.bsky.social•13 hours ago

I think generally we are quite overly optimistic on what would be recovered and produced. But we wanted to err on side of being conservative in the analysis and this shows that even in that case the price decline is dwarfed by the demand driven price increase.

tzraick.bsky.social•10 hours ago

So, you’re saying that restricting the growth of renewables actually punches down at overall productivity by constricting the baseload energy supply right as demand spikes AND we shift more load onto electricity…

Everyone in the Political economy & transition space has been saying the same.

tzraick.bsky.social•10 hours ago

We should have an intervention for sec bessent.

3-3-3 is a recipe for higher prices & lower productivity.

rockney.bsky.social•16 hours ago

Well the criminals of this regime have to repay all the dark money they've been given to destroy democracy.

robbieorvis.bsky.social•19 hours ago

The bill would dramatically reduce new capacity additions to our grid: 114 GW less capacity and 302 GW less by 2035, at a time when demand is skyrocketing and reliability is a concern. Nearly all of this is less clean capacity.

robbieorvis.bsky.social•19 hours ago

Less new capacity and rising demand, coupled with higher fossil fuel prices from higher demand, significantly raises market costs for power generation. We find a ~50% increase in wholesale power generation costs by 2035.

robbieorvis.bsky.social•19 hours ago

We also find that despite some new oil and gas production, overall fossil fuel prices go up from higher demand. That, coupled, with higher demand for these fuels from less deployment of clean energy technologies, raises household energy costs significantly.

robbieorvis.bsky.social•19 hours ago

By 2030 total household energy spending grows by $120/year per household, $40 from more spending on transport fuels and $80 on higher home energy costs. By 2035 this grows to $230/year per household.

robbieorvis.bsky.social•19 hours ago

All that lost clean manufacturing and energy production causes GDP to fall by up to $200 billion per year. Over the Reconciliation budget window (2025-2034) there is a GDP loss of over $1 trillion.

robbieorvis.bsky.social•19 hours ago

Less investment also means fewer jobs from building and running those facilities. We find job losses of more than 1 million jobs in certain years. This is also likely a conservative estimate because we do not fully account for impacts to 45X which threaten all planned projects.

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