I keep being told that Net Zero is responsible for the surge in UK electricity prices. But then how did UK electricity prices drive up gas prices so sharply, because it's pretty clear the two correlate extremely closely. Can anyone help? www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why... - ThreadSky

mliebreich.bsky.social • 36 days ago

I keep being told that Net Zero is responsible for the surge in UK electricity prices. But then how did UK electricity prices drive up gas prices so sharply, because it's pretty clear the two correlate extremely closely. Can anyone help?
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-uk-energy-bills-are-soaring-to-record-highs-and-how-to-cut-them/

Comments

earthsciinfo.bsky.social•36 days ago

Michael @mliebreich.bsky.social Wow! At those prices fossil fuel H2 by SRM must be something like ~20-35 (pounds strerling)/kg. That's got to be much more expensive that green H2 from electrolysis of H20 using 100% wind or solar. Do you have renewable electricity costs for comparison? 🧪🔌💡

mliebreich.bsky.social•29 days ago

That's why UK hydrogen users largely stopped producing during the price spike. The wholesale gas price today is already back down to £77/MWh, but that is for 24/7 reliable delivery to the factory gate. The latest UK offshore wind round cleared at £59/MWh in 2012 money, £85/MWh today.

terrythomasforever.bsky.social•36 days ago

Is it the other way round with the gas price driving electricity prices?

Apologies for this horrific link.

https://www.edenseven.co.uk/national-grid-eso-analysis-annual-review-24#:~:text=In%202024%2C%20Wind%20energy%20was%20the%20primary%20source,from%2021%25%20in%202021%20to%2030%25%20in%202024.

tammydmcleod.bsky.social•36 days ago

Intermittency of renewables often drives up the demand for gas but there will be other factors as well.

kenny-hay.bsky.social•36 days ago

Renewables may be intermittent but they demonstrably reduce gas demand. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/66a76bf2ce1fd0da7b592e5d/UK_Energy_in_Brief_2024.pdf

brklynmind.bsky.social•36 days ago

Cant speak to UK but here in NY, the net zero people attack Nat Gas as a fuel source (well b4 alternatives are economically viable), so you end up with expensive gas & expensive electricity

olthwaiteeric.bsky.social•36 days ago

Wind solar and storage are economically viable now but ya gotta build it for it to help.

Blaming the least cost energy source for the effect gas has on 'markets' seems odd.

brklynmind.bsky.social•36 days ago

If you are going to strangle gas then you have to (as you say) build alternative. In NYC we killed our nuclear, are starving our gas and making Wind impossible to build so we literally have started increasing CO2 AND the prices have gone up,

olthwaiteeric.bsky.social•36 days ago

'Making wind impossible'.

That could be the problem. More wind = less gas required.

brklynmind.bsky.social•36 days ago

NYC had no wind b4 closing nuclear and started strangling natural gas, and still years later has no wind generation

sammaclaine.bsky.social•36 days ago

The UK situation is completely different. Our own gas resources are dropping rapidly. They have been fine for 40 years but now we have to import a big proportion of our gas and we are competing on European Markets for that so it's very expensive 🤔

olthwaiteeric.bsky.social•36 days ago

Our East Coast gas is also linked to Global prices and much of our gas is contracted for export.

Uncontracted Bass Strait gas in decline. Local use declining.

Not that different

havantenviro.bsky.social•36 days ago

They believe effect comes before cause.

The same people that say it's renewables driving prices also say that it's the warming climate that increases CO2 in the atmosphere.

https://skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm

https://skepticalscience.com/Murry-Salby-CO2-rise-natural.htm

profraywills.futuresmart.com.au•36 days ago

Australian data - fyi

Gas generation >3% share associated with strongest break out of NEM volume-weighted price

Coal generation >49% share associated with greatest price variability

Renewables generation >43% share associated with lowest volume-weighted price
https://bsky.app/profile/profraywills.futuresmart.com.au/post/3lhx6acqirc2g

tscmacdonald.bsky.social•28 days ago

We [NEM] have also seen a weakening of the link between gas prices (STTM) and spot electricity prices. They're still clearly linked, but the $/GJ vs $/MWh ratio seems to be weakening and increasingly seasonal (i.e. spring sees more VRE supply and less correlation of power and gas prices)

mliebreich.bsky.social•36 days ago

Wow, that's so interesting, and I had not seen it before. Great work as always Ray!

dirkgentley.bsky.social•36 days ago

We now have the computing power to separate out each form of power generation and build up a consumer cost based on each form. We could then list every form of power on the bill and show the cost per unit for each.
Using the gas price is way out of date with the new make up of the grid

mliebreich.bsky.social•36 days ago

Of course. But that would only cover the wholesale cost. Then you would have to allocate all the other charges, and everyone will want to exempt their favourite technology and load them onto the stuff they don't like.

dirkgentley.bsky.social•35 days ago

It would be nice to have a fully itemised bill, no-one should be hiding their costs to us.

mliebreich.bsky.social•35 days ago

It would only cover the wholesale power - 45% of the bill. Unless you want to see that you used 0.0432% of a grid-connected battery in Southampton, according to some allocation algorithm that you can't follow. You can check your local power mix at any time on multiple apps.

olthwaiteeric.bsky.social•36 days ago

Same in Australia's NEM. Yet those nasty 'ruinables' get the blame.

danithedem.bsky.social•36 days ago

Price gouging. They always seem to have record profits at the exact time they claim inflation is the problem.

And they use those profits to lobby, at least here in the US, so they can essentially uphold the right to get away with price gouging.

scalextrix.bsky.social•36 days ago

It's all to do with who owns shares in what companies.

V technical, v complex, couldn't possibly explain it here.

individkid.bsky.social•36 days ago

dunno. tariffs? our ignorance is what you get, and I relish, for letting business guide the economics curriculum for hundreds of years.

kevinjkircher.com•36 days ago

truly, life is full of mysterious mysteries.

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