I spend 98% of my time pointing to garbage media nonsense on energy. Welcome to the 2% club, this article: www.theguardian.com/business/202... - ThreadSky

tomh-analyst.bsky.social • 40 days ago

I spend 98% of my time pointing to garbage media nonsense on energy.

Welcome to the 2% club, this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/20/why-the-uks-electricity-costs-are-so-high-and-what-can-be-done-about-it

Comments

eagleneedle.bsky.social•39 days ago

Brexit, privatisation, selling off UKs north sea oil and gas and political betrayal and mismanagement of the UK economy. It just all made the rich richer and the victims voted for it.

l-bow.bsky.social•39 days ago

The persistent message that gas is the most expensive generation just doesn't seem accurate though? ROCs and the vast majority of CfDs pay renewables above the average wholesale price set by gas, right? And prices would fall if we generate more from nuclear? Really?

stockfttp.bsky.social•38 days ago

New N is the highest long term bulk gen cost on the system.

tomh-analyst.bsky.social•38 days ago

Be careful confusing old renewables with new. Anything under ROC was procured at least a decade ago.

AR4 solar is coming online now comfortable at £50/MWh, same with wind (apart from AR6 being up towards £80/MWh, but will come down from AR7)

l-bow.bsky.social•38 days ago

Right but that's the minority. The messaging is typically that the only thing stopping us from enjoying low bills from renewables right now is marginal pricing and gas. The reality is that existing renewables as a whole are significantly more expensive than average gas generation

l-bow.bsky.social•38 days ago

Expensive gas may set the price, but we really wouldn't like it if our current renewable fleet set the price! The newer stuff has come down to approx parity with wholesale which is brilliant, but even that won't mean lower overall costs any time soon

ianrobo.bsky.social•38 days ago

So how come my agile prices when wind blows become lower etc if renewable so expensive and we don’t need gas then ?

tomh-analyst.bsky.social•38 days ago

Marginal cost of renewables is essentially zero so they will overproduce, but wholesale doesn't reflect the subsidy cost (ROCs, CfDs, FiTs etc) as it's added outside wholesale via network charges. These turn up during the 4-7pm slot (broadly speaking) and lag by quite some time (a year or more).

stockfttp.bsky.social•38 days ago

ROCs start to drop off from 27 and most R gen will be CFD later this decade.

tomh-analyst.bsky.social•38 days ago

The messaging is completely wrong, I've said that before. No secrets there.

On the the 'existing fleet', it's actually comparably small to what's coming, plus repowering is going to take out the worst offenders by the time we're in the early 2030s. The transition is only just getting going.

ambermb.bsky.social•40 days ago

It buries the stuff about subsidies a bit which I think for the growing numbers of anti net zero folks is the contentious bit. It would be really interesting to hear your perspective on this.

malaclyps3.bsky.social•40 days ago

May I ask why nobody ever asks, why it has to be so that the most expansively produced electricity dictates the price for all produced energy? Why can‘t we just invent a system where we pay only the real costs of power production plus some profit margin to the producers of power?

tomh-analyst.bsky.social•40 days ago

It's all to do with incentives and producing a stable system in periods of peak demand (some discussion below but a pretty complicated question).

https://bsky.app/profile/tomh-analyst.bsky.social/post/3lmwj42puys2n

tomh-analyst.bsky.social•40 days ago

If you followed me on Twitter back in the day, you'd know how much of a fan I am of this.

But GB Energy has just spent money putting solar PV on schools, which is by no means a market failure like extraction of scarcity rent by gas plant. Big big sigh.

GB Energy choosing policy by press release.

dangrey.bsky.social•40 days ago

So... is GBE's schools/NHS funding good or bad? Not sure I follow 😄

stockfttp.bsky.social•39 days ago

All that Tom says. But I'd say its also bad for another reason. It suggests to me GBE is at best playing safe on activities the PS can meet or at worst pandering to things it knows the gov wants.

Maybe we say this is a early PR. But I don't like the signal.

tomh-analyst.bsky.social•40 days ago

Just a waste. Fixes nothing. My point is there are multiple players, with literally 10x private capital, offering zero capex PV to government/quasi government buildings (i.e. infinite tenancy) on PPAs.

It reduces finance cost fair enough but why does GB Energy need to exist to loan to schools?

dangrey.bsky.social•40 days ago

👍 At no point have I ever thought there is a point to GBE

sammaclaine.bsky.social•39 days ago

Isn't the point to GB Energy to have something in place to run the UK gas generating stations when it is no longer economic for private operation ? We will need significant gas generation by 2030 but only for short periods 🤔

stockfttp.bsky.social•39 days ago

Well they might be a good use for GBE. But I don't think that is the point of it.

benbarclay.bsky.social•38 days ago

I'd say that the point of GB Energy should be to speed up and minimise the cost of the transition to low-carbon energy, by supporting emerging technologies and dealing with energy-related market failures of any kind. I.e. to drive outcomes that are desirable for society as a whole.

abigaildombey.bsky.social•40 days ago

LocatED announced in November 24 a programme to install PV on 200 schools across England. I can’t help feeling this is the same project but rebadged as GB Energy…

https://www.located.co.uk/located-launches-net-zero-accelerator-feasibility-study-to-decarbonise-schools-in-england/

lewis-standing.bsky.social•38 days ago

Public sector decarbonization fund did this anyway

dangrey.bsky.social•38 days ago

Maybe GBE is/could be more active in getting public sector to engage? Some have been going out and accessing private capital (my sister's school did), but most haven't. No knowledge/experience of, not a priority (because who wants to save money lol) etc etc

lewis-standing.bsky.social•38 days ago

PFI is a blocker to uptaking this free money because the decision maker is the private owner not the school or council too (experience of my daughter's school)

onesandwichshort.bsky.social•40 days ago

Wouldn't nationalising the gas generators be expensive? According to google there is around 35GW capacity(?) so at a wild guess maybe £10-20bn. Admittedly less than Sizewell C, but would add to the public sector deficit.

tomh-analyst.bsky.social•40 days ago

I don't think the aim would be to get them all (long term probably need less once a decent amount of long duration storage is in the game anyway), but rather strategic assets to prevent excessive power being accrued by private gas generators.

dangrey.bsky.social•38 days ago

In the long-term we're probably looking at 50-100 GW of CCGTs being required for only a few days a year (average). Other countries will need the same relative capacity. That would need all the gas infrastructure we have today for just a few % of time. The optimal path to net zero is quite clear yet

dangrey.bsky.social•38 days ago

While I'm the first to say it's always sunny/windy somewhere, interconnectors etc the possibility of a large cloudy anticyclone sitting over most of Europe for a few weeks in winter will always be a risk. We'll need a weather-independent means of powering heat pumps, charging EVs

wiilp.bsky.social•38 days ago

A similar discussion in 7th Carbon Budget

stockfttp.bsky.social•38 days ago

Given the capex difference and emissions for such limited hrs/yr I don't see they need to be CCGTs

dangrey.bsky.social•38 days ago

OCGTs instead? Rolls-Royce would like that!

stgeorge.bsky.social•39 days ago

Nobody seems to advocate for the long term supply contracts, so that's probably the right answer!

dlynch.bsky.social•38 days ago

What proportion of electricity generation is set at the margin by the most expensive source required to be used?

Are renewable generators not widely incentivised by L-T fixed price contracts, so *not* set at the margin?

Or has this changed over recent years?

dlynch.bsky.social•38 days ago

And, if it has changed, aren't renewables generators making supernormal profits?

And finally, why much less of a problem in Europe? Understand France is very different due to nuclear baseload capacity, but is gas less prevalent in every European country?

Thanks

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