The headline is misleading, & as long as RU forces are tied down in Ukraine it's v unlikely that Putin cd mount a large-scale attack on NATO territory in the north as well. But if Putin defeats UA & can turn his attention elsewhere, & Trump isn't committed to defending Europe, all bets wd be off. - ThreadSky

cerianbond.bsky.social • 16 hours ago

The headline is misleading, & as long as RU forces are tied down in Ukraine it's v unlikely that Putin cd mount a large-scale attack on NATO territory in the north as well. But if Putin defeats UA & can turn his attention elsewhere, & Trump isn't committed to defending Europe, all bets wd be off.

Reposted from Centre for European Reform

'Nobody in their right mind wants to think that a European war is around the corner again. But the reality is an increasing number of European intelligence officials have been telling us that,' said @cerianbond.bsky.social of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...

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paladinoeu.bsky.social•15 hours ago

Indeed, Swedish & Finnish press following this up closely and reported earlier on the build-up of military infrastructure on Russia’s side of the border.
Fair to say that we benefit from tying down 🇷🇺 in 🇺🇦 while we improve Europe's military capacity to react.

https://bsky.app/profile/paladinoeu.bsky.social/post/3losli5jl7c2l

kilzeus.bsky.social•5 hours ago

It's nothing like one would require for an actual invasion, I'd look at the Baltics instead. Europe needs to learn to act independently to defend our freedom, democracy and way of life instead of reacting and appeasing so risk averse we tie our hands.

kilzeus.bsky.social•5 hours ago

Russia might do it even when tied up in Ukraine because it's not all about statistics, it's impressions and Putin has been in power for 1/4 century, he has seen Western failures, appeasement, unwillingness to act. We forget Ukraine was already at war, is Europe ready without the US?

jsargentr.bsky.social•12 hours ago

I have problems with the politics on this. I can barely imagine how Putin survives anything but a stirring and unexpected victory in Ukraine, let alone be allowed further catastrophic adventurism - Russia couldn't easily best NATO's cast offs, what are they going to do against the Varsity team? ...

jsargentr.bsky.social•12 hours ago

...

I think the arms movements are the insurance hedge to protect Russia in the Putin aftermath (to seem capable in a tumultuous moment), but unless everyone in Moscow really is that dumb, it makes no sense to start something worse than the invasion of Ukraine.

svw86.bsky.social•15 hours ago

Ukraine has always been the deciding factor. What happens in Ukraine determines the price in men and material that Europe end's up paying. The more we help Ukraine the lower the price in men and material will be for us. It's literally in our own self-interest to give Ukraine what it needs to win.

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