1/ Things I didn't have to worry about as a young portfolio manager in 2008:
- Treasuries not being risk-free
- Sociopathic leaders tanking their own countries
- Actual wars, trade wars, cyber wars, etc.
- Geopolitical realignment
- Left-field existential threats, e.g. man-made pandemics
- Treasuries not being risk-free
- Sociopathic leaders tanking their own countries
- Actual wars, trade wars, cyber wars, etc.
- Geopolitical realignment
- Left-field existential threats, e.g. man-made pandemics
Comments
- Hyper-integrated, just-in-time, global supply chains
- Hyper-leveraged, integrated global financial system as a result of 20 years of low interest rates
- Hundreds of thousands of federal workers being fired overnight, asking myself if DC just became subprime, looking for other pockets of risk
- Not being able to trust government statistics
- Not being able to trust other analysts' reports, e.g. did Goldman pull their recession prediction because they've kissed the ring?
- Being afraid for my life and safety for telling the truth
- Unprecedented, unmodellable uncertainty
- Every system being more complex than before and under pressure all at once. Too many scenarios as to what might break first.
- 10% market swings possibly driven by insider trading, algorithms
- Financial crisis being just a side thing...