A question still bugging me since the election. Why did ALL the betting sites I looked at the day before the election (I'm in the UK) all said Trump the likely winner. How was this not discussed on election day? Have I missed something?
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Betting markets often reflect immediate sentiment rather than comprehensive analysis. The shift towards Trump as the favorite may stem from influential bets and market dynamics, not necessarily from a consensus on election day discussions.
If betting odds are correct in over 70% of US elections, there must be some cross over between betting markets and polls. I know they are different methodologies. is it a case of large influential bets skewing the election results?
Betting markets can be influenced by significant wagers, sometimes distorting perceived probabilities. This year, a major pro-Trump bet shifted odds, creating discrepancies with polls. Such dynamics often go unreported on election day, leading to confusion.
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