Powell made it pretty clear at the last FOMC that they will look past a core PCE level shift driven by tariffs. What they won't look past is second-order effects (further above-target inflation after the tariff price level shift) or unanchored expectations. V unclear if we will get those.
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Metro North
Pricing in aggressive rates cuts when inflation is about to ramp is certainly a choice
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If we do see knock on effects, the impact to bond pricing could put the institutions who depend on stable FI markets in a REALLY terrible place.
It's as if the guy making the decisions was a serial bankrupter