We're in this 2-3 month liminal space where the impact of the China tariffs hasn't been felt yet, and the congressional GOP hasn't decided what to do about Medicaid yet -- in a way nothing has changed yet, so the public can mostly ignore, and yet 2-3 months from things will have definitely changed. - ThreadSky

conorsen.bsky.social • 5 days ago

We're in this 2-3 month liminal space where the impact of the China tariffs hasn't been felt yet, and the congressional GOP hasn't decided what to do about Medicaid yet -- in a way nothing has changed yet, so the public can mostly ignore, and yet 2-3 months from things will have definitely changed.

Comments

jewjewbee.bsky.social•4 days ago

And is why the Chinese are already indicating that trade talks will take at least 3 months to come to a conclusion. By which time Scott Bessent will be willing to give away both his kidneys for a deal with China.

chad-frederick.bsky.social•4 days ago

Summer '25 gunna be lit 🔥

seacowindustries.bsky.social•4 days ago

If they can get their maga yahoos to seal-clap for going broke, imagine how empty shelves, job losses and benefits shrinking will overjoy them! Such PATRIOTISM!!! 👏🏻

hattie17.bsky.social•4 days ago

It's like the engines have been cut off on our flight, but somehow we're still aloft and it's eerily quiet right before gravity takes over.

ekalcec.bsky.social•4 days ago

A very accurate way to describe it.

samhainnight.bsky.social•4 days ago

Yeah. Very much a Wile E Coyote running off a cliff but he hasn't looked down yet vibe.

electricdonkey.blue•4 days ago

I suspect the Tariff impact will be very noticeable in 2-4 weeks & avalanche thereafter. Americans being spoiled is good in this case.

mikebradleymke.bsky.social•4 days ago

China has all the leverage here. In many sectors, they produce the best products at the best price and can just sell to the rest of world. While we get inferior crap at higher prices from Guatemala instead of Guangdong.

thanksihateit603.bsky.social•4 days ago

Just wait until you can't buy a new TV and everything at Walmart costs $50.

t-antony.bsky.social•4 days ago

Let us not forget, Americans and those legally in the U.S. are being picked up off the streets so yes, things have changed.

robert-e-630.bsky.social•4 days ago

Today I learned: “liminal space” and “laminar flow” are two different things. Very Interdasting

brklynmind.bsky.social•5 days ago

The fact that they likely wont pass budget bill before the impact of the trade war become obvious is a huge development

mikebradleymke.bsky.social•4 days ago

The budget bill will be rebranded as a stimulus package when we officially enter a recession next quarter.

brklynmind.bsky.social•4 days ago

Anyone more cynical than me deserves a follow

tericloth.bsky.social•4 days ago

Great line, you get a follow.

xeynon.bsky.social•4 days ago

I think generalized anti-GOP backlash may sink it, though.

"They're voting for billionaire tax cuts while you're out of a job and can't buy basic household goods" is a message hits a lot harder than "this is fiscal stimulus".

grainneproinseas.bsky.social•4 days ago

Good call

macca1950.bsky.social•4 days ago

Great word “liminal”. Would you mind if I borrowed it?

adriana1o5.bsky.social•4 days ago

Yes. And I absolutely need every bit of shite to hit the fan so that lessons can be learned by Trump voters and low info voters. He + GOP cannot get away with this insanity.

nursegenius1019.bsky.social•4 days ago

The GOP knows what they are going to do We know what they will do. They are letting us sit with it awhile so when it comes we will be beaten down a bit more with exhaustion

mamiern85.bsky.social•4 days ago

Already bought the kids toys for Christmas. Next week it’s fall clothing for the oldest.
I remember Christmas 2020. It was pretty bleak in the stores.

ffa1984.bsky.social•4 days ago

So, today, only worse, 2 - 3 months from now?

kathleencarson.bsky.social•4 days ago

We are definitely in the moment of a tsunami of consequences when the metaphorical water is quickly receding, animals are reacting, but people are still mostly going about life as usual, though some are uneasily looking out at the water wondering how much to panic.

mncatlady4.bsky.social•4 days ago

https://youtu.be/_vwhKYDuOsw?si=gZg96uw9nU5cPy87

psychobarnyfife.bsky.social•4 days ago

Lets hope the tariff hit soon and hard so that the repugs get afraid to pass their medicaid & tax cuts.

joegofar.bsky.social•4 days ago

The calm before the storm... Ignorance is bliss.

traceyryniec.bsky.social•4 days ago

This.

bewildered37.bsky.social•4 days ago

Want to know whether Donald Trump or Xi Jinping will win the trade war? China just signed the world’s largest free-trade agreement with Japan and 14 other Southeast Asian Nations. These 16 nations hold $ Trillions in USA Treasury Bonds. How much of their long-term debt is the USA holding? None.

kizzyq.bsky.social•4 days ago

That's so true. I stock at a grocery store, and have been giving the "heads up" on some price gouging, and things that haven't been coming anymore, when we order it.

kates1425.bsky.social•4 days ago

I think the same with the 2025 tax budget, the loud ppl who can't think past a week, who still staunchly support this regime will feel it in 2026 - when they lose their Medical, SNAP, housing, ect. I'm afraid it'll be too late by then.

rabbit500.bsky.social•4 days ago

The dye is cast, The plan is in motion...

minervameddler.bsky.social•4 days ago

Americans are still reeling from the price increase on their fast food cheeseburgers. I do not expect stoicism

dawnwilliamson.bsky.social•4 days ago

I expect riots before this is over. 😩 They may be the biggest and the best that Trump has ever seen. 😳

ekalcec.bsky.social•4 days ago

There is slack in the supply lines. But this is rapidly tightening. Once it snaps tight, it’s going to seriously hurt. It might break things completely. Either way, we’ll feel it.

skippyoz.bsky.social•4 days ago

2 - 3 weeks.

burtonad.bsky.social•5 days ago

And the administration hasn’t begun to take a run at actual mass deportations yet.

skoryy.bsky.social•4 days ago

They haven't even been able to not step on rakes on the deportations they've done so far.

leosstankytaint.bsky.social•4 days ago

Sure, but the extraordinary renditions, with new death camp opening access coming soon to countries not near you, have been going without nearly enough slap back.

trixiebelden75.bsky.social•4 days ago

We can’t ignore that’s what they want

honeywheeler.bsky.social•4 days ago

Trixie, it’s me Honey Wheeler🤣🤣🤣

trixiebelden75.bsky.social•4 days ago

The Bob Whites should get together

trixiebelden75.bsky.social•4 days ago

Hahahaha BFF we need Di lynch and we are fine

spoutblue.com•4 days ago

The impact is here already. I went shopping yesterday. The oranges I was getting for $4 a bag are already up to $9. And the coffee I was getting for $10.50 is up to $16.
I was shocked 😲 I tell you. Shocked!

gullablebread.bsky.social•4 days ago

I give up. I’m gonna go lay on the ground and pray to zues or any god of lightning to strike me or send a wind so strong I get blown into Canada.

ericmichaelmoberg.bsky.social•4 days ago

If Walmart shelves go empty right about the time of The Felon King’s $100 million birthday parade (6/14) will MAGA cite the protests as reason to invoke the Insurrection Act?

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/06/california-ports-trump-tariffs-00332493

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/birthday-bash-with-bombast-donald-trump-plots-100-million-military-parade-through-washington-dc-on-his-birthday-tanks-troops-and-fireworks-set-to-shake-the-capital-in-june/articleshow/120074756.cms

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-told-officials-shoot-protesters-in-leg-new-book-says-2021-6?op=1

jhughs.bsky.social•4 days ago

People didn’t vote for empty shelves and higher prices under the guise of “shared pain” so maybe they’ll see the parade & festivities as a reason to invoke the twenty-fifth amendment.

vorgto.bsky.social•4 days ago

Republicans don't care. They're attacking our voting systems like crazy.

georgesnorewell.bsky.social•4 days ago

They'll care exactly at the moment they see that voting isn't what's going to put them out of office.

mackblamba.bsky.social•4 days ago

Yes, and the additional nonsense/distractions (whether high impact or trolling) occuring minute-by-minute does NOT help the public keep abreast... So when the wave hits, it could be "where did this come from??!"

friendlypurplalien.bsky.social•4 days ago

They’ll just blame Biden like they always do. Bunch of idiot lemmings.

mackblamba.bsky.social•4 days ago

Yeah possibly

mpurves.bsky.social•4 days ago

exactly it’s like standing in line to get on a scary roller coaster but the line is really long and slow moving

jimmymachbuffet.bsky.social•4 days ago

401 K have and will change. Newark or DC may have an aircraft accident. Then again we might all get to glow in the aftermath Global nuclear warfare. Anything is Possible, when you have reality TV stars in charge

uclabruin1998.bsky.social•4 days ago

I work in international trade. I have been warning people for weeks that we are on the precipice. We will be lucky if it is just a recession.

macd123.bsky.social•4 days ago

The Speaker of the House was talking about how proud he was of trying to codify Trump’s disturbing EOs - it is midnight in America ….

kentruthfap.bsky.social•4 days ago

The 'calm' before the storm, just wait for the price of fireworks to take-off for Memorial Day weekend.

xeynon.bsky.social•4 days ago

The calm before the storm.

jersey-jedi.bsky.social•4 days ago

THIS is the "calm"???!!!

dockim.bsky.social•4 days ago

🧐Months or weeks?

n1ghtmarica.bsky.social•4 days ago

Hence why it is important to act now to stop that shit instead of relying only on "reactions"

bobhawaii.bsky.social•4 days ago

I’m looking for a tsunami

themightypenblog.bsky.social•4 days ago

Oh, you're going to feel it in the next few weeks. Its visible in some stores now.

claudiamw.bsky.social•4 days ago

No, it's starting to happen. A close acquaintance who works for a delivery service just had his first delivery refused by a small business.

Cost of products: $200
Tariffs added $423

SO MUCH WINNING.

tracybrisson.bsky.social•4 days ago

Yeah, it depends on where you are in this + downstream effects. A bride can’t get her wedding dress because of tariffs and cuts back on other wedding expenses. Her bridesmaid who is getting married decides to downsize her wedding, etc.

Micro transactions accumulate and then will merge with macro.

claudiamw.bsky.social•4 days ago

Well ... my friend's job is under threat as the delivery company has already signaled plans for massive layoffs and office closures. As long as that's the case, he probably won't buy the new truck he's been eyeing, which will hurt the dealer, etc.

Trump's trade war has Putin's fingerprints all ...

claudiamw.bsky.social•4 days ago

2 ... over it. First he leveraged the NRA to put as many guns as possible into circulation. Then he expropriated the Republican Party as a megaphone for propaganda and a means of propping up Trump, undermining trust in elections and obstructing progress on solving serious problems. Now he's got ...

claudiamw.bsky.social•4 days ago

3 ... Trump destroying safeguards against corruption and using tariffs to attack us via our relentless consumerism. Basic necessities will stretch our budgets, especially if we lose our jobs. What will we do if the car needs repairs, the fridge dies, we can't make payroll? Go further into debt? ...

claudiamw.bsky.social•4 days ago

4 ... How many American guns will be turned against their owners, when farmers and small business owners succumb to bankruptcy and the electric company turns off the power, leaving the veteran—whose VA job just vanished—and his family in the dark?

Most adults know how to keep going through a ...

claudiamw.bsky.social•4 days ago

My friend added, "The business owner said that pre-tariff mania, the product in question usually cost around $200-$250, including shipping. Now the grand total is $623!"

How many deliveries can one small shop in one small town in a rural state refuse?

spm1961.bsky.social•4 days ago

you can see it on eBay too - stuff from China went from normal charges a few weeks ago to $45-55 to ship now

bigtparker.bsky.social•4 days ago

I live in a city close to the Canadian border and it's the only large-ish place for hundreds of miles.

So Canadians come here. Lots of them.

They've mainly stopped coming. The recent run of "Hamilton" from an off-Broadway company failed to sell out and usually does months in advance.

johngmeadows.bsky.social•4 days ago

But Trump says the US doesn't need anything from us here in Canada, so I am sure things will work out just peachy for you all. /s

bigtparker.bsky.social•4 days ago

The city's revenue stream is intricately intertwined with tourist dollars. All of the big event venues are owned by a public facilities district to generate maximum revenue for the city. As well, hotels have an added surcharge tax for out of town guests that goes directly to the city coffers.

spacemonkeygleek.bsky.social•4 days ago

And this is being repeated in thousands of towns along the border… I used to live in one and every weekend the traffic would triple and the Costco parking lot and gas station was packed — Canadians spent so much money in the US.

hungrykate.bsky.social•4 days ago

Awesome to see New Englanders get pounded for a guy they didn't vote for.

bigtparker.bsky.social•3 days ago

I live in the Inland Northwest.

jadedragon2.bsky.social•4 days ago

Yeah… dreading!!

melreich6324.bsky.social•4 days ago

📌

georgesnorewell.bsky.social•4 days ago

That 25% approval rating waiting for Trump in August though, and I do believe 3:1 against get people in the street in a way that's terminal for this administration.

elmosbigdaddy.bsky.social•4 days ago

In 2-3 months we will likely be in a global depression.

dawnwilliamson.bsky.social•4 days ago

👍 I have to shake my head when I keep hearing some say we are not in a recession right now. The only reason the numbers have been up is because many are stocking their personal pantries as we see what’s coming. When we stop buying extra and the shelves are bare it will tumble fast and hard. 😬

elmosbigdaddy.bsky.social•4 days ago

The technical definition is 2 quarters of GDP shrinkage.

We simply don't have two quarters of data yet...

dawnwilliamson.bsky.social•4 days ago

I knew it would be bad in November when Trump said it would be bad for us. I didn’t need to wait for a technical definition to know to prepare. Fed is still saying layoffs and job loses are not bad too. Hmmm…I’m not gonna play the game they are playing. Indications are we are in financial trouble. 💩

elmosbigdaddy.bsky.social•4 days ago

Like I said, I think we're heading for a global depression.

dawnwilliamson.bsky.social•4 days ago

I’m hoping others move in a better direction right past us. We may have been the center of attention for too long. 🤦‍♀️ If they don’t you are right about the global part since we will take them down with us. 😩

kensheetz.bsky.social•4 days ago

There's no apathy to support GOP creep fascism. We crush Tesla we crush Trump. https://bsky.app/profile/kensheetz.bsky.social/post/3lolwmmhtok2r

jane57lisa.bsky.social•4 days ago

We haven't really felt the impact of what Trump is doing, the bans, the executive orders, the many stupid things that will hurt the poor & vulnerable the most, but also the middle class, the environment, civil rights, education, health, etc. We will ALL feel the pain in the next 3-6 months.

northcandor.bsky.social•4 days ago

Much sooner than that. Buckle up.

juniebee.bsky.social•4 days ago

Some people are feeling like everything is normal, and some people are anxiously waiting for the shoes to start dropping in unexpected places.

This morning I couldn't find any Whitman's Samplers for Mothers Day. Is that tariff-related?? IDFK!

tericloth.bsky.social•4 days ago

This feels like when we watched Russian tanks and military supply vehicles move towards Ukraine. Just holding our breathes, hoping for intervention.

bluewisco.bsky.social•4 days ago

The polls really don't indicate the public is ignoring what has happened so far.

walt88.bsky.social•4 days ago

I keep hearing the impact is 2 weeks away. I’m getting a little cynical on this point.

dawnwilliamson.bsky.social•4 days ago

There was talk of taking away SS starting last February. Apparently someone grew their brain to slow that down so we are now in a slower burn for everything to collapse around us. We are now looking at a loss of Medicaid for some at the same time shelves are bare. Trump is playing with explosives. 😬

joeday05.bsky.social•4 days ago

It’s interesting how the parochial challenges of the day: immigration, int’l competition, aging populations, identity, etc., have taken a front seat in politics, when arguably much more difficult, expensive, and possibly existential crises like climate change and AI, have become an afterthought.

rubylee-isme.bsky.social•4 days ago

You can see 👁️ immigrants and your money in the bank (or not).

You can still choose not to see the environment outside of your immediate locale.

It's ALWAYS WIIFM, [what's in it for me]. Folks do not like to future-proof.

whenwefightwewin12.bsky.social•4 days ago

Anyone who has children and who denies climate change and the existential threat it is to the world, is cruel and heartless.
Most of the people I know, who really give a shit about the environment, are childless - and for good reason. I know that a generalization, but it's true for me.🌎

whenwefightwewin12.bsky.social•4 days ago

that is a generalization. EDIT button 🙏