Gentle readers, be reminded that one of the biggest tax hauls of the RF annual calendar falls in the first few weeks of July.
The end of the month (VAT from big firms), the end of the quarter (VAT from small firms), and annual personal income tax payments all generate Kremlin revenue in early July.
What is 33% deficit nowadays?
The EU is acting when a state go over 3% to ask to correct it. It's stupid when you see that great Russia can get 33% without stress.
I think the income numbers are probably fairly good, for those are harder to fudge.
The expenses shown are only those which the Kremlin admits to --- how many trillions of rubles do they owe for goods and services to companies they have stiffed/forced to take out loans?
My totally unscientific gut feeling is that we're probably talking several(6-9) at this point in the year. Then again I predicted 2025's deficit should be less than 24 trillion six months ago. Perhaps my gut is biased and the actual figure is higher.
The biggest thing I think people should take away from a lot of this is the volatility of the situation. There is so much that Russia hides, but what we do know is bad, and continues to get worse, and the decline is accelerating.
There’s a chance we wake up tomorrow and it’s all fallen apart.
Finance costs so far: ~2tr in OFZ discounts+coupons. 1-1.5tr in mortgage/loan subsidies. Estimated "real stuff" deficit is 0.8-1.6tr. Range depends on whether coupon taxes have been paid already or will be later.
Comments
There are taxes that have been coming in between the last update of the month and the first update of the next month.
Start, Mid, brace for impact?
https://youtu.be/zWWclfq3kaY?si=Ts90VgavYBpF1mma
The end of the month (VAT from big firms), the end of the quarter (VAT from small firms), and annual personal income tax payments all generate Kremlin revenue in early July.
Don't be disheartened. Just smile, and wave, knowing that it is all downhill for the rest of the year.
Who gets a bailout and with what money?
April and July just happen to coincide with 3 big payment cycles, each (corporate income taxes are due at the end of March).
We need more, bigly and faster!
And the end of the quarter is coming! 😭
... YA NEED SALES!
🎶 Once I built a railroad
Made it run
Made it race against tiiiiiiime
Once I built a railroad
Now were done
Comrad can you spare a diiiiime 🎶
(US currency only please, even the government's own decrees reference USDs.)
Great news!!!
revenues are lagging the target (20.1 bio) by 33% of their revenues.
expense are smack on target.
The EU is acting when a state go over 3% to ask to correct it. It's stupid when you see that great Russia can get 33% without stress.
I love watching because the deficit keeps growing despite their lies.
The expenses shown are only those which the Kremlin admits to --- how many trillions of rubles do they owe for goods and services to companies they have stiffed/forced to take out loans?
My totally unscientific gut feeling is that we're probably talking several(6-9) at this point in the year. Then again I predicted 2025's deficit should be less than 24 trillion six months ago. Perhaps my gut is biased and the actual figure is higher.
There’s a chance we wake up tomorrow and it’s all fallen apart.
So, they can spike their future bond payments, loot the RCB's gold and FOREX reserves, or print Rubles. Which will it be?
So, their "high-water mark" for June is over 3 trillion rubles in the hole.