Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 99.7% RE Last 186 weeks: 98.7% RE (1/5) - ThreadSky

davidosmond.bsky.social • 99 days ago

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 99.7% RE
Last 186 weeks: 98.7% RE (1/5)

Comments

davidosmond.bsky.social•99 days ago

Last week had:
- well above average demand (108% of long-term average)
- below average wind (94%)
- above average solar (109%) (2/5)

davidosmond.bsky.social•99 days ago

Here is the simulation from weeks 183 to 186. It was 99.9% renewable (3/5)

davidosmond.bsky.social•99 days ago

My simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from
@OpenNEM
, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

davidosmond.bsky.social•99 days ago

The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($107/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (end)
https://reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100-per-cent-renewable-grid-is-readily-achievable-and-affordable

davidosmond.bsky.social•99 days ago

For those wondering, this is the first week that wasn't 100% renewable since early August last year. There were 30 consecutive weeks of 100% renewable.

maddogeco.bsky.social•99 days ago

It feels like we are one project energy connect away from being 100% all year round.

jeffjl54.bsky.social•99 days ago

I'm sorry. I left a light on. My fault.

p17ete.bsky.social•99 days ago

Dave could I ask what is the storage works out expressed as:

% of average GW
% of average GWh?

Thanks

davidosmond.bsky.social•99 days ago

Average NEM demand is 24 GW, so the 24GW/120GWh of storage can supply average demand for 5 hours.

p17ete.bsky.social•99 days ago

It’s impressive to think that for the NEM a generating system based on RE (~95%?) could be

60% wind
40% solar
Supported by
21% battery

[revised for clarity]

maxopray.bsky.social•98 days ago

Hi Dave, I'm the editor at SolarQuotes and keen to use the top graph in this thread in a story for our website, linking to your post and crediting you of course - is that ok?

davidosmond.bsky.social•98 days ago

Yes, very OK. I'm a big fan of the SolarQuotes blog!

maxopray.bsky.social•93 days ago

Thanks Dave - here's the piece that incorporated your post https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/phase-shift-curtailment-is-cool/

davidosmond.bsky.social•91 days ago

Thanks Max

fredwitting.bsky.social•99 days ago

What is the lowest RE value of the simulation ever in the model? Ie largest short fall.
How many gas peaker plants would it take to fill it.

davidosmond.bsky.social•99 days ago

Worst week had an 18.6% shortfall. Peak 'other' was 9 GW.
I discuss the most challenging periods in this article.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100-per-cent-renewable-grid-is-readily-achievable-and-affordable/

fredwitting.bsky.social•99 days ago

Thank you for the link and the analysis you do.
Very helpful to refer naysayers to it.

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