I'd caution foreign leaders about reading too much into Trump's crazed statements about Canada/Panama/Greenland, but one of the most important bits of consensus of international relations scholars is that uncertainty is bad. It causes wars. And Trump is reminding us he is an uncertainty engine. 1/2 - ThreadSky

smsaideman.bsky.social • 130 days ago

I'd caution foreign leaders about reading too much into Trump's crazed statements about Canada/Panama/Greenland, but one of the most important bits of consensus of international relations scholars is that uncertainty is bad. It causes wars.
And Trump is reminding us he is an uncertainty engine. 1/2

Comments

cholechaves.bsky.social•129 days ago

You're right uncertainty breeds instability. Trump's unpredictable comments create tension making other nations wary this unpredictability can lead to miscalculations and escalate conflicts. Stability and consistency are key in global diplomacy

tobiasharris.bsky.social•130 days ago

This was the thing I stressed in conversations I had in Tokyo in November. Yes, there are better or worse possible outcomes but the problem is the variance and the Knightian uncertainty of it all.

smsaideman.bsky.social•130 days ago

I wrote this in 2017 http://saideman.blogspot.com/2017/04/the-definitive-uncertainty-engine-post.html and it has held up. I'd add resentment and dementia to this mix, so that the uncertainty engine is on overdrive.

People forget how close the US got to war with both North Korea and Iran last time.

So, I must re-post the classic meme 2/2

smsaideman.bsky.social•129 days ago

Oh and uncertainty is also bad for investors except for those few folks who like to "disrupt" so that they can find some evil way to profit off of the misery of others.
So, don't expect the US/world economy to do that great even if deregulation and tax cuts are in hand.

smsaideman.bsky.social•129 days ago

Perhaps the biggest uncertainty problems in international relations involves alliances--that allies may not show up when needed. Countries, such as Iraq in 1990, may attack thinking that their target won't get much support and then they find out they are wrong. The US commitment to allies 1/x

smsaideman.bsky.social•129 days ago

has always been pretty hard to believe. That deterring attacks on Europe or Asia means risking Chicago to protect Riga or Paris or Tokyo or Seoul. Basing troops to create tripwires has been a key way to convince adversaries (and allies). But Trump undermines all of that. 2/x

smsaideman.bsky.social•129 days ago

Adversaries may think Trump is a paper tiger so China might think that Taiwan is now up for grabs. Putin clearly won't expect the US to defend East European allies, and we know he is an opportunist. Good thing his troops are committed in Ukraine. North Korea? Iran? They can become emboldened. 3/x

smsaideman.bsky.social•129 days ago

Allies, too, can be more uncertain about the US commitment. They may respond by bending to the demands of China/Russia/whoever since they can't be sure the US will help them. Or they may develop their own nuclear weapons since the US nuclear umbrella is now in the hands of Trump. 4/x

avishaybsg.bsky.social•129 days ago

In that respect, Biden's support for Israel during the war is actually stabilizing

dovlevin.bsky.social•129 days ago

Thankfully even if there is an early peace in Ukraine Russia will need a while to lick wounds, so Trump's antics on NATO (place where most likely to be a possible issue) won't have a effect of that kind in short/medium term

smsaideman.bsky.social•129 days ago

Yeah but .... it would just take a small group of Russian soldiers to occupy just a bit of Latvia or Estonia to create a situation where the US can fail its allies, breaking NATO.
And that is Putin really wants to do.

dovlevin.bsky.social•129 days ago

But these countries have prepared for that recently with Ukraine style fortifications on borders etc.. Won't stop alone a full on invasion but will do for small, Kargil style shenanigans.

welshrarebit.bsky.social•129 days ago

About 20 years ago there was a popular management book called “If it Ain’t Broke Break It.”

jaykaydee.bsky.social•129 days ago

Was talking with a friend about how this uncertainty is already impacting certain sectors of the US banking system - they just don't know if Trump is serious about tariffs or what that would look like but if there's even a 10% chance he is, that could wipe out many borrowers. So, yeah.

chrisedelson.bsky.social•129 days ago

that sounds right to me--but confuses me that so many in the business world supported trump during the campaign, and even more do now. I guess they are more afraid of trump's wrath than they are of generalized uncertainty.

jaykaydee.bsky.social•129 days ago

I think the thing is that people in the business world are also just people, and fell prey to the same delusions that Trump doesn't mean it when he talks about stuff that matters to *them* as anyone else.

smsaideman.bsky.social•129 days ago

Wishful thinking is a hell of a drug.

chrisedelson.bsky.social•129 days ago

quite possible, though obviously a mistake as you suggest

rondeibert.bsky.social•130 days ago

Rhetoric can also take on a life of its own, with unpredictable consequences. At the very least his bluster erodes norms, opens up the prospect of what was once taboo -- e.g., threatening allies, mooting territorial acquisition by force. This will have system-wide effects.

chrisjones1.bsky.social•129 days ago

Red October memes are always welcome

pagapu.bsky.social•129 days ago

Nobody is talking about his crazy cabinet nominees. This nonsense also takes the spotlight away from President Carter’s memorials. Mission accomplished.

paxlusitanica.bsky.social•129 days ago

Nixon's 'Madman Theory' comes to mind, since that could theoretically be a positive aspect of the political uncertainty that Trump constantly offers.

Unfortunately, Trump is no deliberately consistent madman - he is just Donald Trump.

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/nixons-madman-theory-doesnt-work-with-trump

teeoh.bsky.social•129 days ago

@amras.me @vanvidum.bsky.social

hodag1977.bsky.social•129 days ago

Why would a supposedly rational adult vote for this - to add political & financial uncertainty into their lives? Mind-boggling🤦‍♂️

herr-elle.bsky.social•129 days ago

rational adults are not many.

leopoldwdb.bsky.social•129 days ago

It puts Canada in a tricky spot. Even if these are just crazed statements, you can't just brush off the fact that an intention has been expressed by your superpower neighbor to cause you serious economic harm.

leopoldwdb.bsky.social•129 days ago

Even benign US policies can have a huge impact here (see the classic elephant/mouse metaphor), so we must plan for anything and everything now

scottwhitegloves.bsky.social•129 days ago

You've ignored (probably unintentionally) the electoral effects of Trumps bleating about Canada. Canadian politics, like everything else in Canada, are influenced by whatever is going on in the US. Trump's bleats are a supercharged example of this. There are people here who wear red hats FFS.

sylvainsylvain.bsky.social•129 days ago

Just a quick point-Wall St/Big Econ types will moan&groan over ‘economic uncertainty’ when they don’t have the reins in their hands, but are completely down w it atm. Just like w everything else, it’s a crisis when it limits them, and an opportunity when it helps.

anonski.bsky.social•129 days ago

I wish our media would have ignored the whole bullshit

bgadk.bsky.social•128 days ago

You can't, nor should, ignore when a mad man has the command of the worlds biggest military and is (has been) the guarantor of the international system.

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply