There is increasing evidence that the world has warmed faster over the past 15 years than it has since the 1970s. Surface records, ocean heat content, and the Earth's energy imbalance all support an acceleration of warming, as I argue in today's @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/o... - ThreadSky

hausfath.bsky.social • 596 days ago

There is increasing evidence that the world has warmed faster over the past 15 years than it has since the 1970s. Surface records, ocean heat content, and the Earth's energy imbalance all support an acceleration of warming, as I argue in today's @nytimes.com: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/opinion/climate-change-excessive-heat-2023.html

Comments

litterygeniarse.bsky.social•595 days ago

When Methane starts outgassing from sea-bed/Tundra then it will run away.
I suspect that's already begun.

anlomedad.bsky.social•594 days ago

Read Chapter 4 on Permafrost in last year's update to the State of the Cryosphere. They quantify CO2e from permafrost in 4 emission/warming scenarios. The lowest, ie emissions end ~today, entails 200Gt CO2e / century that need to be removed to keep °C stable. All-pledges-scenario = 300Gt / century.

litterygeniarse.bsky.social•594 days ago

Scary.

hardkandy.bsky.social•594 days ago

We're not going to remove anything significant though, definitely not in the order of gigatons

peakaustria.bsky.social•595 days ago

Thx 🙏 Zeke! I think Cloud Sensitivity is underrated so Marine Cloud ☁️ Brightening must be cheap and more effective. Also Antarctica 🇦🇶 cooling of the SST is reducing wind 💨 and so sea 🌊 spray so clouds ☁️

robertzimmermann.de•594 days ago

I am sure it has nothing to do with the data of the below Diagram...

hausfath.bsky.social•596 days ago

Why has warming accelerated? Our emissions of greenhouse gases – and their accumulation in the atmosphere – have continued to increase. At the same time, we have cleaned up air pollution and reduced the planet-cooling effect of aerosols by 30% since 2005.

hausfath.bsky.social•596 days ago

However, this is not a completely unexpected outcome. In scenarios where global aerosol emissions decrease while emissions continue to increase (e.g. SSP2-4.5), our climate models project a 30% to 40% higher rate of warming in the current decade similar to what we have observed.

hausfath.bsky.social•596 days ago

This is true when comparing the CMIP6 MMM to historical simulations, and AR6 assessed warming to observations:

CMIP6 MMM (SSP2-4.5)
1970-2014: 0.218C/decade
2015-2030: 0.303C/decade

Obs (Berkeley Earth) / AR6 Assessed (SSP2-4.5)
1970-2014: 0.184C/decade
2015-2030: 0.254C/decade

hausfath.bsky.social•596 days ago

It’s also clear that we can control how warm the planet gets over the coming decades. Climate models have consistently found once we get emissions down to net zero, the world will largely stop warming; there is no warming that is inevitable or in the pipeline after that point.

hausfath.bsky.social•596 days ago

There is still some reason for cautious hope. The world is on the brink of a clean energy transition. The IEA estimated that a whopping $1.8 trillion will be invested in clean energy tech like renewables, electric cars and heat pumps in 2023, up from ~$300 billion a decade ago.

chrismooiweer.bsky.social•596 days ago

And the amount of renewables you could get a decade ago for 1.8 trillion is about the same as you can get now for 300 billion 🎉

jccooper.bsky.social•595 days ago

We just have to get better at utilising it. I've been trying to make a case for using solar as high temperature heating for a DOE grant but the cost of gas is still given as lower than solar. I know that isn't true but the infrastructure that would allow us to just use solar isn't there.

hausfath.bsky.social•596 days ago

We are far from on track to meet our climate goals, and much more work remains. But the positive steps we’ve made over the past decade should reinforce to us that progress is possible and despair is counterproductive.

hakonnordhagen.bsky.social•595 days ago

I guess an important assumption (w strong reasons to assume) is that natural carbons sinks remain so. What natural co2-sink do you see as the one that will start weaken at the lowest rise in global temperature?Are all those natural sinks that can turn into sources believed tobe outside realistic GW?

rupe.bsky.social•595 days ago

https://bsky.app/profile/rupe.bsky.social/post/3kbnpkzntyj2m

claireasher.bsky.social•593 days ago

What about feedback effects, such as release of CO2 from thawing permafrost?

patrickmaroney.bsky.social•525 days ago

On the topic of #esg 🎁 here’s a link to my EOY recap of top #sustainability posts (case studies, articles, events, and technology posts) ➡️ https://bsky.app/profile/patrickmaroney.bsky.social/post/3kh475wjbzk2w

queervidual.bsky.social•595 days ago

While a small and anecdotal piece, I offer you this from The Netherlands…

sagebiel.bsky.social•595 days ago

@charles-ex.bsky.social

topoesfera.aldea.social•595 days ago

😱

dennisredmenace.bsky.social•594 days ago

elephant in the room: capitalism

klimahoelle.bsky.social•595 days ago

Latest outlook from DNV. The message is crystal clear:
- all boundaries will be smashed
- we have to fight every ton of THG emission

But we are not ready to take on this fight. Instead we are sleepwalking towards climate hell.

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply