And if Iran with modernised modern military, decides to withdraw from the NPT and build a bomb it won't be that easy to destroy it-its conventional deterrence will be much more credible. Therefore, Israel is demanding regime change and is unlikely to agree to the nuclear deal. 3/4 - ThreadSky

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matejrisko.bsky.social • 11 days ago

And if Iran with modernised modern military, decides to withdraw from the NPT and build a bomb it won't be that easy to destroy it-its conventional deterrence will be much more credible. Therefore, Israel is demanding regime change and is unlikely to agree to the nuclear deal.
3/4

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matejrisko.bsky.social•11 days ago

It is by the way a textbook example of offensive neorealism.
To be clear- the US probably can force/coerce Israel to accept the deal. No one else, but Trump is very weak (speaking about foreign policy) so….

Rigorously (ICD203), there’s 55-80% chance of US joining the war (likely/probable)

FIN
4/4

lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social•11 days ago

Also again underlines how vulnerable states with latency or a very early nuclear capability are.

matejrisko.bsky.social•11 days ago

Yes and no.

States rely on conventional deterrence because of this vulnerability to bridge the time to build the bomb. Kennedy considered attacking PRC,but was deterred by the prospect of retaliation against US allies.Clinton considered striking DPRK,but it would unleash a war on the peninsula
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matejrisko.bsky.social•11 days ago

Iran's problem is that it has lost its conventional deterrent-Syria is free and the axis of resistance through which it projected its power does not exist anymore. Without modern AD assets and airpower,your rudimentary LRS capability won't help (at this distance)

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2018.1508635

lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social•11 days ago

Yes, these are important caveats.

antinomie.bsky.social•11 days ago

I think the important point is to recognize that security while developing and building nuclear weapons is very context dependent and not to think about this in black and white. But nuclear weapon program is often not a magic bullet, esp. for states in acute security crisis.

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