I get why Palantir is doing this kind of frenzied fearmongering - it's a grift. But serious people - please stop falling for this. A few thoughts on the current rhetoric around US/China relations on medical innovation and supply chains. 🧵 1/ www.wsj.com/opinion/the-... - ThreadSky

mbarber.bsky.social • 25 days ago

I get why Palantir is doing this kind of frenzied fearmongering - it's a grift. But serious people - please stop falling for this.

A few thoughts on the current rhetoric around US/China relations on medical innovation and supply chains. 🧵 1/

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-bitter-pill-of-reliance-of-china-reliance-supply-chain-drugs-medications-cc961e00

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mbarber.bsky.social•25 days ago

First - the numbers being tossed around re: % reliance on China are not well sourced. The fact of the matter is the systematic data needed to make these assertions are not collected. I have spent the last few years trying to persuade policymakers to monitor and map API, but we're not there yet. 2/

mbarber.bsky.social•25 days ago

There are academic papers and consultancy reports claiming % of API from China - these numbers *never* to my knowledge mean % volume of global API. They instead refer to bulk value (from COMTRADE and related data) or facilities/APIs registered with the FDA (which /= primary API manufacturers. 3/

mbarber.bsky.social•25 days ago

Here's one example - even for a specialist supply chain with unparalleled data access, the Defense Logistics Agency is “unable to determine with certainty if any of the drugs it purchases rely solely on sources in China or India”, w/the exception of 3 drugs." DLA could trace only 22% of drugs. 4/

mbarber.bsky.social•25 days ago

Data chasms aside, yes, manufacturing is concentrated in China, & we do need diversification. But this wasn’t some nefarious plot—it was industrial policy. I’ve testified in Congress twice on how the U.S. can pursue a health-forward version of its own. 5/
https://melissajbarber.github.io/congressional_testimony/

mbarber.bsky.social•25 days ago

Sankar & Dimon suggest that China might stop supplying the US with API and/or medicines. Is the proposal here that we should completely onshore all medical supply chains? Did I miss a declaration of war? How likely do the authors think this situation? Compared to other risks, is this a priority? 6/

mbarber.bsky.social•25 days ago

I’m personally alarmed that any dissent that 'maybe a Cold War with China might be unnecessary or harmful' feels politically nonviable right now. But even if tensions worsen, we can still choose not to cede ground on the special, protected status of medicines (eg, their exclusion from sanctions). 7/

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