The most striking thing I found in my analysis of how Toronto voted in the 2025 provincial election was the focus of the NDP vote - strong in the ridings they won, marginal in almost all others - which allowed them to keep far more seats than their proportion of the vote. spacing.ca/toronto/2025... - ThreadSky

dylanreid.bsky.social • 40 days ago

The most striking thing I found in my analysis of how Toronto voted in the 2025 provincial election was the focus of the NDP vote - strong in the ridings they won, marginal in almost all others - which allowed them to keep far more seats than their proportion of the vote. https://spacing.ca/toronto/2025/04/14/toronto-in-2025-ontario-election/

Comments

toqueman.bsky.social•39 days ago

I think the NDP wins Toronto seats when they have good candidates in the ridings. Those local candidates convince ABC voters to go orange; when uncertain, they go red to block blue.

theterroirist.bsky.social•39 days ago

I feel that this is a sign of NDP voters voting strategically. When their candidate has a chance, they come out in support. When they don't, the fear of the Tories drives their voting.

dylanreid.bsky.social•39 days ago

That's what I say in my article! But there also seems to be a small hard core of NDP voters who won't vote Liberal.

theterroirist.bsky.social•39 days ago

There's definitely some of those as well (and more than a few Grits who would vote Tory before NDP if push came to shove).

Personally, rather than seeing it as keeping more seats than their % of the vote indicates, I see it the other way - that they have a lower % than their presence would suggest.

theterroirist.bsky.social•39 days ago

(Which, I admit is a bit of an inside baseball distinction. But it feels different from, say, the BQ who benefit from their geographic strength in a way that PR would hurt them, I think the NDP vote would go up noticeably in a PR system when there are no 'wasted votes')

dylanreid.bsky.social•39 days ago

That's a fair point. Though I also think, as someone else suggested, that the NDP benefits from voter attachment to the quality of their individual MPPs. Peter Tabuns' massive majorities in Toronto-Danforth - which is often Liberal federally - is an example.

amacmahon.bsky.social•39 days ago

Peter's an example of how door knocking matters - not so much in the campaign, when everyone is doing it, but over the course of a life. He's been elected on and off since 1990 - thousands of residents know him. At least in 2018, he was still door knocking between elections.

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply