Whether or not a society falls apart into civil war is not dependent on its level of technical or institutional development. It's a product of a particular convergence of structural forces that can hit any society once state legitimacy and ordet fall apart
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Ideally, the theocracy would be toppled and a benign liberal democracy would quickly and bloodlessly take its place but sadly history indicates that this is unlikely.
In Iran the divide is between secularism v theocracy, within demographics where 90% of people are from the same religion anyway
So very different pathways
We really do need to assess the quality of someone’s analysis by reference to their record of predictions
Didn’t you also predict that the Scottish nationalism would degenerate into an IRA terrorist movement?
With all due respect, you have a predilection for predicting everything will be a civil war.