Even if the state doesn't collapse, an Israeli operation that kills off the top 2 or 3 tiers of Iran's military-industrial leadership would lead to rapid rise of obscure colonels and majors whose strategic outlook would be unknown to most outsiders in ways that make the regime less predictable - ThreadSky

aphclarkson.bsky.social • 10 days ago

Even if the state doesn't collapse, an Israeli operation that kills off the top 2 or 3 tiers of Iran's military-industrial leadership would lead to rapid rise of obscure colonels and majors whose strategic outlook would be unknown to most outsiders in ways that make the regime less predictable

Reposted from Judah Grunstein

In other words, for all its flaws and regional meddling, the Iranian regime's broad coalition moderated the IGRC (or constrained its influence) as much as the IRGC radicalized the regime, imposing constraints that will no longer exist in the event of an abrupt collapse under Israeli pressure.

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alexandergruchala.bsky.social•10 days ago

A line of weak and failed states from the Mediterranean to nearly the Indus seems bad.

adambarfy.bsky.social•10 days ago

Iran endured 8 years of total war. They won’t give up at little Israel’s couple of days bombing.

aphclarkson.bsky.social•10 days ago

That was a very different society and stage in the regime's development from where we are now

adambarfy.bsky.social•10 days ago

So you’re telling me you don’t know Iranians 🤷‍♂️

congoswiss.bsky.social•10 days ago

And I would imagine the views of those colonels would diverge from each other.

kisenosato.bsky.social•10 days ago

Ahmed al sharaa is a good example of such obscure colonels.
He is pretty tame with Israel.
New Iranian leadership most likely will behave same way.
And overall, this idiotic fear of new figures and developments is exactly what feeds the current endless wars.

zac50.bsky.social•10 days ago

The sand castle will melt away quickly if the "Supreme Leader" is taken out by one of his minions.

zac50.bsky.social•10 days ago

The destabilization of the ayatollah regime, potentially leading to its overthrow, will most likely be precipitated not by widespread unrest and protests

zac50.bsky.social•10 days ago

but by the combined actions of remaining senior officers and the type of obscure mid-level officers in charge of armed units you mention, most likely within the ranks of the IRGC, exploiting the opportunity to save their skins and advance their personal ambitions.

korp44.bsky.social•10 days ago

6000 years of state history. This will very likley not lead to collapse. Iran is not Hezbollah or a Arabic banana republic and no people knows that better than the Israelis. Killing elite people will not work. These are simply too many even in a society cursed by theocracy.

aphclarkson.bsky.social•10 days ago

If you take even the briefest look at those thousands of years of Iranian history you'd notice dozens of instances of imperial regime collapse and civil war whether after interventions by Greeks, Romans, Arabs, Mongols, religious brotherhoods, Afghans, Russians, Brits or internal Islamic revolution

korp44.bsky.social•10 days ago

... if Bibi Mongol style obliterates the parliament and the boss during session I will reconsider...

elliottness47.bsky.social•10 days ago

I'm seeing a lot of people suggest this conflict will be easily contained because of Israel's overwhelming military superiority. That seems incredibly naive. No one could possibly predict how this will change Iran or other regional powers like Syria. How could we possibly know?

stormwyrm.org•10 days ago

The military superiority of the United States is undeniably overwhelming, yet they were never able to contain Iraq or Afghanistan. In 2022 everyone thought Putin would conquer Ukraine in weeks, but that war has dragged on for 3+ years, still with no victory in sight. Wars are risky business.

didntgetamemo.bsky.social•10 days ago

And wars aren't won with million dollars weapons.
Something the US could never really figure out: how to fight insurgents and win.

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