The Khamenei regime for decades pursued aggressive operations that left deep grudges among European and Arab states that now won't lift a finger to stop Israel while failing to build effective alliances that would lead Russia, China or anyone else to lift a finger to help Iran - ThreadSky

aphclarkson.bsky.social • 5 days ago

The Khamenei regime for decades pursued aggressive operations that left deep grudges among European and Arab states that now won't lift a finger to stop Israel while failing to build effective alliances that would lead Russia, China or anyone else to lift a finger to help Iran

Comments

terrypasta.bsky.social•5 days ago

There's a much deeper reason than that: obedience to the United States.

aphclarkson.bsky.social•5 days ago

Iran's status as a power is potentially falling apart not just because of the collapse of badly managed air defence systems, but also because of what proved a disastrous military and diplomatic strategy that wasted huge goodwill, cash and prestige on proxy forces in other states that are now useless

gabrielmilland.bsky.social•5 days ago

If only there was a current example of another power - a greater one, perhaps - which abandoned alliances based on shared interests and common goals, and instead based its relationships on transactionalism and coercion.

gabrielmilland.bsky.social•5 days ago

But there is no way a serious power would be that short-sighted and downright stupid.

mcopsey.bsky.social•5 days ago

But you can buy my new phone, bitcoin or bible for a great price.

mcopsey.bsky.social•5 days ago

Yes I wonder who you mean? 😂 Surely not one that wants to take over friends

pwnallthethings.bsky.social•5 days ago

when their regime collapses, few people will shed a tear for it. Tho remains to be seen /how/ it collapses

ianrobo.bsky.social•5 days ago

And what replaces it, how many regime changes actually worked ??

andraswf.bsky.social•5 days ago

I dunno, we were pretty chuffed for a few weeks in 1989

ianrobo.bsky.social•5 days ago

Sure to narrow it down :-) to the Middle East … it is far far too tribal there and most of the countries are fake bar strangely Iran/persia.

s3rp86.bsky.social•5 days ago

Regime change won't work. If a weakened Iranian regime collapses without direct influence from the outside what replaces it it would have a shot. Unsure how big a chance of that is.

andraswf.bsky.social•5 days ago

Look, speaking from experience, the best thing you can look for is a shot at something okay.

pwnallthethings.bsky.social•5 days ago

Like folks should be careful to not forget among the very legitimate concerns about what is happening now that the people in power there are genuine monsters with a level of barbarity towards their own population that is utterly horrendous

sierraalpha.bsky.social•5 days ago

I will never understand how anyone can side with the Iranian regime. The Iranians deserve so much better than enduring a dictatorship.

ptrtlrwrts.bsky.social•5 days ago

Maybe they pretend they're shooting a film in a neighbouring country?

andraswf.bsky.social•5 days ago

I pray for a "747 takes off with all the gold they could shove into the cargo hold" ending because I love symmetry

aphclarkson.bsky.social•5 days ago

The IRGC elite already has their stash in Dubai property

andraswf.bsky.social•5 days ago

oh c'mon now, my thing is fun

saintthejase.bsky.social•5 days ago

Turns out the Iranian regime was actually just 700 guys in Mumbai

pibasedlifeform.bsky.social•5 days ago

*Message from Hizbollah your Ayatollship*

*At last, how are they going to help us defeat the Zionists?*

*Er, they are waving pictures of you at passing Israeli jets*

Really should be a Downfall parody about this now I think about it

mattrobb.bsky.social•5 days ago

Indeed. However malign Israel is right now, Iran if friendless because it’s at least as bad

jakubjaraczewski.bsky.social•5 days ago

Not necessarily wasted, the Iranian regime held on mostly thanks to selling low education dads and uncles a vision of Mighty Persia That Makes The Region Tremble, and that was enough to make them overlook their daughters getting shot in the face. Obviously, it's all going to the crapper now.

terraistrying.bsky.social•5 days ago

That’s just false.
China convened an emergency meeting at the UN in support of Iran.

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/514318/China-condemns-Israel-s-military-adventurism-against-Iran

aphclarkson.bsky.social•5 days ago

So you're claiming that the geopolitical equivalent of a Good Luck card is going to save Iran from Israeli airstrikes?

terraistrying.bsky.social•5 days ago

Thinking that the corrupt, murderous Israeli government has the right to force regime change in another country is ludicrous.

terzikianp.bsky.social•5 days ago

So you’re claiming that you care more to defend Israel committing genocide while pretending that Iran is a threat to Israel?

emouseanon.bsky.social•5 days ago

I tell ya, lotta good property in Eye-ran. Lotta potential ... big beautiful condos... Trump golf resorts ... all kinds of great developments.

molynj.bsky.social•5 days ago

😂

adambarfy.bsky.social•5 days ago

Jeremy Clarkson has a better idea if geopolitics than you.

agijoe.bsky.social•5 days ago

Haha

wvantuinen.bsky.social•5 days ago

Like how Iran has been helping the Russians in their invasion of Ukraine. This after the EU's effort to keep the JCPOA alive.

Imagine another reality in which Iran approached the EU after the invasion saying; you want to get rid of Russian oil? Here we are. What do you need?

rk70534.bsky.social•5 days ago

Ukraine is supplied with drones by Turkey which occupies the northern part of EU country Cyprus (and parts of northern Syria, and a slice of northern Iraq).

In exchange Turkey is the main beneficiary of the Ukrainian grain deals during the conflict.

This doesn't trouble you folks.

s3rp86.bsky.social•5 days ago

Instead they made dumbass comments about how the EU should stock up on coal. The fact they apparently didn't expect their alliance with Russia just going one way is kind of funny. This is just how "alliances" with Russia go just ask Armenia.

wvantuinen.bsky.social•5 days ago

- Lesson 1 of the past 100 years of geopolitics: never rely on the Russians.
- Lesson 2: don't alienate international partners needlessly.

Mind you, lesson 2 needs to be relearned by several western leaders as well.

molynj.bsky.social•5 days ago

Also, Israel. Their exploits in Gaza are far from universally popular.

rk70534.bsky.social•5 days ago

Ukraine's drone supplier Turkey helped (with Israel) Azerbaijan to defeat Armenia & capture Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to its complete depopulation from Armenians. 120 000 people driven out.

In occupied Western Sahara Morocco uses Turkish drones in its quest to annex its southern neighbour.

s3rp86.bsky.social•5 days ago

My point was that Armenia was in a defense treaty with Russia at the time ( which Azerbaijan was not part of ) and Russia did absolutely nothing to honor that agreement.

s3rp86.bsky.social•5 days ago

Armenia has since left the CSTO

rk70534.bsky.social•5 days ago

And European Union has cozied up to Azerbaijan, with Kaja Kallas praising the regime during her visit thos spring while it makes new threats to Armenia.

Armenia's turn towards the United States (more an ally of Azerbaijan in past), which made vague noises about Armenia's safety is worth nothing now

molynj.bsky.social•5 days ago

Imagine another alternative reality in which Israel had not encouraged the previous Trump administration to ditch the JCPOA.

dr-john-von-pi.bsky.social•5 days ago

Exactly, #Europe didn’t do jack shit to keep the #JCPOA alive, being too terrified of US sanctions by #Trump 1.0. It left #Iran out in the cold of harsh, undeserved sanctions, which crippled its economy.
Europe’s big mistake: not pressuring #Biden to revive the JCPOA.

danjac.bsky.social•5 days ago

Supporting Russia with drones for its war with Ukraine is just head-scratchingly bizarre. A war where Iran has no material interest that lost it whatever sympathies it may have had in Europe.

snoozebuttonben.bsky.social•5 days ago

caludio.social•5 days ago

Too much confidence and hopes in Allah.

johndalton1108.bsky.social•5 days ago

They even screwed with Pakistan on their Eastern border and establish links with India. Since last one week almost all Indian social media is clapping 👏 Israelis for bombing them.

ottocr.at•5 days ago

I guess much depends on exactly what Orange is scuttling home to do. An outcome that features indiscriminate harm to the Iranian public will be disastrous. God forbid deployment of any of the toys he so longs to get to use.

simonbm.bsky.social•5 days ago

I get the impression Orange has an aversion to war but thinks that this Israeli action is something he ought to be in on, in case it’s successful and he had no publicly known part in it.

oldhoundderby.bsky.social•5 days ago

Yup. With Israel having taken out Iranian air defence, Trump order US airstrikes because the risks of American pilot losses are low now. I doubt TACO would’ve ever made the first move against Iran.

ottocr.at•5 days ago

Hmm. I think he wants to use his most powerful toys and sees Iran as his best option. Obviously hope I am extremely wrong, foolish, and paranoid.

simonbm.bsky.social•5 days ago

In that case, Netanyahu and the US military would probably dissuade the strangely coloured weakling unless it fitted in with Israeli operations. Maybe I’m optimistic but I don’t think an indiscriminate, pointless or purely demonstrative use of weapons is likely.

aphclarkson.bsky.social•5 days ago

You're talking about a Trump administration that when faced with scandals at home dropped a MOAB needlessly on a small IS cell near Kunduz

ottocr.at•5 days ago

Exactly. People keep crediting Trump, and the people with whom he has now surrounded himself, with far too much good sense and strategic thinking.

brrpzn.bsky.social•5 days ago

I think he just wants credit, same as Reagan/ Bush when the Soviet Union fell without an American bullet shot.

aphclarkson.bsky.social•5 days ago

One of the problems with the current cult of SOF and linked airpower paradigms is it generates a sense that decisive outcomes can be brought about through a minimum of impact on the US homeland.

aphclarkson.bsky.social•5 days ago

The Israelis are willing to soak up damage, but as with the Soleimani hit Trump would need to convince himself that flattening Fordow is cost free for him at home

oldhobbit.bsky.social•5 days ago

Strategic air campaigns never work. WW2, Vietnam, Gulf War 1, Iraq War etc... the only time it ever came close was WW2 and targeting the Nazi rail network for moving coal very late in the war - with ground forces either side of Germany. Pearl Harbor was also, ultimately a failure, for the IJN.

dieterjosef.bsky.social•5 days ago

On the other hand the Israelis are far too engaged for him, he doesn't like to share responsibility if something goes bad. And he doesn't understand this engagement, there is no deal, no advantage to be taken, he doesn't understand real threats.
Yes, admittedly he was shot at, twice, but he was >

dieterjosef.bsky.social•5 days ago

lucky again, like in so many business mistakes that he survived.

molynj.bsky.social•5 days ago

https://bsky.app/profile/molynj.bsky.social/post/3lrpqgj3u622n

stephaniemac.bsky.social•5 days ago

Something I read a while ago was the mullahs have never trusted the regular military and kept it relatively small and poorly equipped so it can’t stage a coup. 🇮🇷 also has sizeable minorities such as Azeris and Khuzestani Arabs and they didn’t want too many of them getting military training 1/n

stephaniemac.bsky.social•5 days ago

They’ve relied on the IRGC and various militias for internal control and proxy wars but they don’t have the numbers needed for a major war, which only a regular army can provide. It would be fitting if that proves to be the cause of the regime’s demise 2/2

drunkenbakers.bsky.social•5 days ago

Im no fan of the current Israeli govt but they could, by accident be doign us all a favour by taking Iran apart. Imagine a world where the regime changes to a more moderate democracy, one which doesnt provide Russia with arms and shows the Russians that a Gangster state isnt in their best interests.

samaaraa.bsky.social•5 days ago

Always and forever the fucking colonizer, your lot!

drunkenbakers.bsky.social•5 days ago

Sorry, come again?

molynj.bsky.social•5 days ago

On the other hand, Israel has done a bunch of stuff in recent times to that might mean other countries are disinclined to lift a finger to help them.

Maybe just leave the two of them to fight it out?

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