If the Khamenei regime ends up with its proxy forces across the Middle East in tatters, an economy in freefall, the IRGC hammered and forced to concede denuclearisation then it has lost its long war in ways that inevitably have long term consequences
Well in the immediate term, oil prices will rocket as China needs to find new sources to replace Iranian oil.
Iran's economy collapses, tens of millions of people are thrown into poverty and another mass migration towards Europe begins. It is Syria 2.0 but with a much larger population.
And then we have the far right taking power right across Europe over the next 5 years as centrist European Governments find themselves unable to pull the levers required to stem the flow of people.
Not to mentioned you have region chock full of soldiers battle-hardened by decades of warfare and few other employment prospects. We've already had a few goes around this merry-go-round since 2003 (further, if you include the mujahideen). They're not going away, so there's that.
Maybe trump is already thinking about where to build his golf course near teheran. That's the only "plan" they might have at the moment. A tacky ai video will be up soon
And this isn't just a US question either. The EU has a vested interest in that region yet has been caught flat footed repeatedly, most notably with Syria.
FWIW, the impression I'm getting from a close reading of Israeli media is that the war is not at all one-sided; the things to look for are declining rates of surface-to-surface missile launches and declining daily rates of Israeli casualties, and so far it's not clear either is happening.
can you think of a historical parallel where that happened? it seems like from the perspective of the iranian public that would look more like enduring against powerful foreign attackers than losing a war
It was already a powder keg and unstable. Very hard tos ee how this sort of defeat is contained. And Iran, traditionally the largest, most stable and most powerful state in the region (going back hundreds of years) collapsing will have huge shockwaves.
Given that almost uniquely in the Muslim world Iran has a strong national identity based on both language and religion that transcends tribalism and sectarianism I can't see it collapsing entirely.
But in these last days of mankind on earth who knows?
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Iran's economy collapses, tens of millions of people are thrown into poverty and another mass migration towards Europe begins. It is Syria 2.0 but with a much larger population.
It's not just being defeated, it's being humiliated
Not to mention its role as the key Shia power
Might work for Israel tactically but not sure this is a good idea from a broader perspective.
But in these last days of mankind on earth who knows?