... and his subsequent antagonisms toward Canada: his trade war and threats to make Canada the 51st state. In Mark Carney, the Liberals chose a leader who seemed tailor-made for the moment: he could be packaged as a “serious” politician whose experience leading the Banks of Canada & England... 3/n - ThreadSky

tmpear.bsky.social • 60 days ago

... and his subsequent antagonisms toward Canada: his trade war and threats to make Canada the 51st state. In Mark Carney, the Liberals chose a leader who seemed tailor-made for the moment: he could be packaged as a “serious” politician whose experience leading the Banks of Canada & England... 3/n

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tmpear.bsky.social•60 days ago

... through the 2008 financial crisis and Brexit respectively apparently proved him the steady hand the crisis demanded. Carney’s attributes contrasted well with his principal opponent, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. 4/n

tmpear.bsky.social•60 days ago

A career politician, Poilievre has little gravitas and—despite concerted efforts to package him as a likeable family man who “gets” working people—Canadians have failed to warm to him. There’s a strong argument his advantage was simply that voters disliked Trudeau more. 5/n

tmpear.bsky.social•60 days ago

And then there is Poilievre’s achilles heel: his Trump-lite ideology, policy positions and persona. Poilievre had used inflation as a cudgel to very effectively beat Trudeau into retirement, building a huge lead between mid-2023 and late-2024. 6/n

tmpear.bsky.social•60 days ago

But absent Trudeau and with Trump's arrival he was vulnerable. Could he really take on the man whose policy positions he had aped and whose language he had often copied? (The Liberals have run ads that show Trump and Poilievre saying the same thing in identical or near identical wording.) 7/n

tmpear.bsky.social•60 days ago

So why did we also see the polling numbers for the NDP and to a lesser extent the Bloc Québécois (Québec’s independence party) collapse? It’s mostly a case of “My overriding priority is to stop the right.” 8/n

tmpear.bsky.social•60 days ago

As the ballot question became “Who can best deal with Trump?” voters coalesced around Carney’s Liberals.

In fact, it’s interesting to note that Conservative voting intention is currently 4-6 pts *better* than the result of the 2021 general election (which delivered a Liberal minority). 9/n

deathbybacklog.bsky.social•60 days ago

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