But absent Trudeau and with Trump's arrival he was vulnerable. Could he really take on the man whose policy positions he had aped and whose language he had often copied? (The Liberals have run ads that show Trump and Poilievre saying the same thing in identical or near identical wording.) 7/n - ThreadSky

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tmpear.bsky.social • 51 days ago

But absent Trudeau and with Trump's arrival he was vulnerable. Could he really take on the man whose policy positions he had aped and whose language he had often copied? (The Liberals have run ads that show Trump and Poilievre saying the same thing in identical or near identical wording.) 7/n

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tmpear.bsky.social•51 days ago

So why did we also see the polling numbers for the NDP and to a lesser extent the Bloc Québécois (Québec’s independence party) collapse? It’s mostly a case of “My overriding priority is to stop the right.” 8/n

tmpear.bsky.social•51 days ago

As the ballot question became “Who can best deal with Trump?” voters coalesced around Carney’s Liberals.

In fact, it’s interesting to note that Conservative voting intention is currently 4-6 pts *better* than the result of the 2021 general election (which delivered a Liberal minority). 9/n

tmpear.bsky.social•51 days ago

Had the NDP and BQ vote held, the Conservatives would be on course right now for at least a minority government and quite possibly a majority. 10/n

tmpear.bsky.social•51 days ago

One additional background factor is that the Conservatives’ success branding themselves as the party of “the little guy” (however specious that may be) has pulled away a significant chunk of the NDP’s voting universe. 11/n

tmpear.bsky.social•51 days ago

This is a long-term trend we have seen in the US going back to Reagan Democrats in the 1980s, in the UK with Thatcher and the Conservatives’ subsequent responses to UKIP etc, and in many European countries... 12/n

tmpear.bsky.social•51 days ago

...—the rise of national populism as an appeal to working class concerns about their economic and social position in a rapidly changing, increasingly unequal world. 13/n

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