So why did we also see the polling numbers for the NDP and to a lesser extent the Bloc Québécois (Québec’s independence party) collapse? It’s mostly a case of “My overriding priority is to stop the right.” 8/n
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As the ballot question became “Who can best deal with Trump?” voters coalesced around Carney’s Liberals.
In fact, it’s interesting to note that Conservative voting intention is currently 4-6 pts *better* than the result of the 2021 general election (which delivered a Liberal minority). 9/n
One additional background factor is that the Conservatives’ success branding themselves as the party of “the little guy” (however specious that may be) has pulled away a significant chunk of the NDP’s voting universe. 11/n
This is a long-term trend we have seen in the US going back to Reagan Democrats in the 1980s, in the UK with Thatcher and the Conservatives’ subsequent responses to UKIP etc, and in many European countries... 12/n
...—the rise of national populism as an appeal to working class concerns about their economic and social position in a rapidly changing, increasingly unequal world. 13/n
The NDP’s woes also come against a background of the kind of policy malaise that will be familiar to followers of other progressive/social democratic parties. Decades of accommodation to neoliberal orthodoxy, a shift of emphasis away from working class concerns toward identity politics... 14/n
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In fact, it’s interesting to note that Conservative voting intention is currently 4-6 pts *better* than the result of the 2021 general election (which delivered a Liberal minority). 9/n