One additional background factor is that the Conservatives’ success branding themselves as the party of “the little guy” (however specious that may be) has pulled away a significant chunk of the NDP’s voting universe. 11/n
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This is a long-term trend we have seen in the US going back to Reagan Democrats in the 1980s, in the UK with Thatcher and the Conservatives’ subsequent responses to UKIP etc, and in many European countries... 12/n
...—the rise of national populism as an appeal to working class concerns about their economic and social position in a rapidly changing, increasingly unequal world. 13/n
The NDP’s woes also come against a background of the kind of policy malaise that will be familiar to followers of other progressive/social democratic parties. Decades of accommodation to neoliberal orthodoxy, a shift of emphasis away from working class concerns toward identity politics... 14/n
... and a lack of policy boldness has left the NDP lacking a compelling appeal to clear constituent groups.
Right now, the polls seem to have hardened into a relatively static pattern, which if it holds will lead to a Liberal victory. But there are still a little less than two weeks to go. 15/n
Carney is a rookie politician, who granted has performed well so far, but he has to navigate the leaders’ debates (French today; English tomorrow) and Poilievre is nothing if not an effective attack dog. Whether or not Canadians are looking for a Trump-lite attack dog remains to be seen. 16/16 fin
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Right now, the polls seem to have hardened into a relatively static pattern, which if it holds will lead to a Liberal victory. But there are still a little less than two weeks to go. 15/n