brendanvduke.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

A common claim is that One Big Beautiful Bill is deficit neutral when you account for economic growth. But we've got five independent macroeconomic analyses of OBBB and none of them find it's anywhere close to deficit neutral. In fact, two of them show it slows growth.

submitted 1 day ago • 5 comments

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

One Big Beautiful Bill is extraordinarily effective at redistributing income from Americans who are poor to Americans who are rich. It makes 30% of Americans worse off while doing the most for the top 10%.

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

Fixed it.

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Fixed it.

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

I did a quick analysis of the distribution of One Big Beautiful Bill including and excluding the DOGE dividend.

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

This idea was shamelessly stolen from @brendanvduke.bsky.social (must follow). Rs are increasing the deficit by $2.4 trillion. They didn't HAVE to hurt the poor while helping the rich. That was a choice. If they held the bottom 30% harmless, the top 10% could still have a $9,400 boost!

submitted 1 day ago • 4 comments

NEW analysis by the Congressional Budget Office shows the "One Big Beautiful Bill" 1.) Makes the bottom 30% worse off 2.) Finances tax cuts that make the top 10% in particular better off. This is not shared sacrifice--it's a fiscal transfer from the bottom to the top www.cbo.gov/system/files...

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

A natural point of comparison for One Big Beautiful Bill's tax provisions is to the 2012 bipartisan deal making most of the Bush tax cuts permanent. They're both intended to be the resolution of temporary tax cuts and are about the same size (~1.7% of GDP).🧵

submitted 2 days ago • 2 comments

New @centeronbudget.bsky.social analysis of the official distributional estimates of the House GOP bill/One Big Beautiful Bill's tax provisions. The basic pattern the 1st full year it's in effect: the richer you are, the bigger tax cut you get. This doesn't include Medicaid/SNAP/tariffs.

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

We've got multiple independent macroeconomic analyses of One Big Beautiful Bill and none of them suggest the bill comes anywhere close to deficit neutral when you include growth. In fact, two of them show the bill costs more after including growth effects.

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

There’s actually a new analysis by the White House Council of Economic Advisers showing that the National Guard troops will add more than $4,000 to the average household income.

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

Speaker Johnson on ABC News this morning: “I didn’t go out to craft a piece of legislation to please the richest man in the world. What we're trying to do is help hardworking Americans.” Oops.

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

Well- that’s one helluva lie

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Speaker Johnson on ABC News this morning: “I didn’t go out to craft a piece of legislation to please the richest man in the world. What we're trying to do is help hardworking Americans.” Oops.

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

NEW CBO analysis of the effect of One Big Beautiful Bill on the trajectory of federal debt over the next decade. While causing millions to lose health insurance and nutrition assistance, it would also accelerate growth of the federal debt. WTF are we doing here?

submitted 8 days ago • 2 comments

“.. This isn't shared sacrifice to address our fiscal trajectory--it's a direct transfer of wealth to the rich.” - @brendanvduke.bsky.social

submitted 8 days ago • 24 comments

My very hot take: CBO is basically the most functional component of the legislative branch. The staff are super smart, non-partisan (their analysis annoys both Ds and Rs), and prolific--putting out incredibly helpful public materials and backup data. It's Congress's jewel.

submitted 8 days ago • 2 comments

Brendan with the receipts again showing what the "Beautiful Bill" actually does. Spoiler: it's actually quite ugly.

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

UPDATED based on yesterday's CBO score. The House GOP bill cuts $1.3 trillion in health care & nutrition assistance while cutting $1.6 trillion in taxes from the top 5%. This isn't shared sacrifice to address our fiscal trajectory--it's a direct transfer of wealth to the rich.

submitted 8 days ago • 13 comments

UPDATED based on yesterday's CBO score. The House GOP bill cuts $1.3 trillion in health care & nutrition assistance while cutting $1.6 trillion in taxes from the top 5%. This isn't shared sacrifice to address our fiscal trajectory--it's a direct transfer of wealth to the rich.

submitted 8 days ago • 1 comment

President Trump’s budget for 2026 proposes deep cuts to annual appropriations outside defense and veterans’ medical care. These programs support many services and assistance critical for the well-being of people and communities. 🧵

submitted 9 days ago • 6 comments

Art of the deal. www.wsj.com/business/aut...

submitted 10 days ago • 3 comments

The Trump Admin just sent to Congress its 1st rescission package this term. This is 1 month+ after it was originally expected & many months after the Admin began impounding funds (not spending $ Congress approved), but in time to throw a wrench into FY2026 gov funding talks.🧵

submitted 10 days ago • 1 comment

Pouring one out for the White House staff that did everything they could to make sure Trump never found out about “TACO.”

submitted 13 days ago • 3 comments

We are totally and completely cooked. www.politico.com/news/2025/05...

submitted 13 days ago • 34 comments