cmeinel.com - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

"Before any of that, of course, Starship needs to stop exploding." This may be the new Platonic ideal of 'burying the lede'.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

I am privileged to announce the publication of the Anti-Autocracy Handbook: sks.to/autocracy 1/12

submitted 5 days ago • 23 comments

June 20, 2025: Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED in 2025? bestworld.net/botmaster-ph... Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle also predicts these state-based conflict deaths for Sudan. bestworld.net/botmaster-je...

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Thanks for the reminder @janemunday.bsky.social. Every summer, I repost this article DROWNING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE DROWNING. To date, I know of FOUR kids who were saved after someone who'd clicked on the link learnt how to spot actual drowning. Take time to read and pass on. slate.com/technology/2...

submitted 5 days ago • 105 comments

Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 45% bestworld.net/willthe-us-a... Read time: 7–8 minutes

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

"i asked grok" "i asked chagpt" yeah well I asked a rare books librarian and they found things I didn’t even know I was looking for, while answering questions about provenance

submitted 9 days ago • 28 comments

“I will be her someday fierce, and always in motion bright like lichen and timeless stone and i will not feel so much and I will not hurt I will just grow and die and be reborn again and again I will be the river someday I will be the rocks beneath her I will be birdsong Distant and unnameable”

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

When non-citizens reside with you in your land, you shall not wrong them. Rather, the non-citizens who reside with you shall be to you as your citizens; you shall love each one as yourself, for you were non-citizens in the land of Egypt: I God am your God. Leviticus 19:33-34

submitted 15 days ago • 15 comments

Things are looking hopeful in Syria, but the new government has many challenges ahead. See Jeremy Lichtman’s and Phil Godzin's AI-aided forecasts of June 5, 2025 on how many state-based conflict deaths in Syria will be reported by ACLED for the month of June 2025?

submitted 18 days ago • 2 comments

I used to draw giant hypothetical diagrams for an grand open network, and can you believe that now I actually answer support emails for it! Let that be a warning to other dreamers

submitted 25 days ago • 34 comments

Check out the latest results of our "Bot or Not" research comparing textual outputs of GenAIs with those of humans. bestworld.net/current-proj.... If you would like to participate in our research, please contact me at [email protected].

submitted 28 days ago • 0 comments

Fridays, despite all the chaos, we generally feature Fox around here. Something to remind you It's a world worth saving

submitted 32 days ago • 18 comments

There are still quite a lot of people who refuse to believe that COVID killed more than a million Americans, and think the number must have been fudged or miscounted or something, Scott Alexander has more patience responding than I would have.

submitted 31 days ago • 10 comments

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of May 2025? Today, May 21, both Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle and Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai bot are predicting 15%. Details here: bestworld.net/israel-hamas... bestworld.net/israel-hamas...

submitted 33 days ago • 0 comments

We devote musicals, miniseries, and documentaries to the founders of our first republic and not to those of our second, who saw this country with clear eyes. We need fewer encomiums for Jefferson, Madison, and Lafayette. More respect for Sumner, Stevens, Bingham and Douglass (Frederick).

submitted 37 days ago • 72 comments

honestly I gotta assume that everyone who is like 'how could he have prostate cancer now' or 'how could he have good days and bad days' or 'how could he be fine one year and losing it sometimes the next' has literally never dealt with a relative in their 80s

submitted 37 days ago • 22 comments

Since Biden is being decimated today, I’ll just say again that he Facetimed my brother before a particularly rough chemo round to give him a pep talk, even though he didn’t know anything about my brother other than he was a veteran who was poisoned by the same burn pits that killed his son, Beau.

submitted 42 days ago • 17 comments

How many state-based conflict deaths will be reported by ACLED for the month of May 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today: * Less than 1000: 5% * Between 1000 and 3000: 10% * Between 3000 and 5000: 15% * Between 5000 and 8000: 35% * Between 8000 and 12000: 25% * More than 12000: 10%

submitted 39 days ago • 1 comment

How many state-based conflict deaths will be reported by ACLED for the month of May 2025? On May 15, Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts: * Less than 100: 2% * Between 100 and 250: 13% * Between 250 and 500: 32% * Between 500 and 1000: 35% * Greater than 1000: 18%

submitted 40 days ago • 1 comment

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of May 2025? Today, May 14, both Phil Godzin’s pgodzinai and Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predict 15%.

submitted 40 days ago • 1 comment

How many state-based conflict deaths will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine for May, 2025? Phil Godzins’ pgodzinai predicts today: Less than 500: 10% Between 500 and 1000: 20% Between 1000 and 1500: 40% Between 1500 and 2000: 20% Greater than 2000: 10% bestworld.net/ukraine-conf...

submitted 41 days ago • 0 comments

Will ACLED report any conflict fatalities by India against Pakistan or vice versa between May 13 and the end of May? Phil’s pgodzinai predicts a probability of 78% Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 35%

submitted 43 days ago • 1 comment

#NeverForget

submitted 44 days ago • 2 comments

submitted 45 days ago • 1 comment

New from me: language in the House reconciliation process would gut courts' power to enforce contempt rulings. That's a threat to justice not only in the Trump disputes at hand, but also across the private economy and, crucially, in other areas where government has violated constitutional rights. /1

submitted 47 days ago • 13 comments

How many state-based conflict deaths in Syria will be reported by ACLED for May 2025? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today: * Less than 100: 18% * Between 100 and 250: 28% * Between 250 and 500: 26% * Between 500 and 1000: 17% * Greater than 1000: 11% bestworld.net/botmaster-je...

submitted 47 days ago • 0 comments

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of May 2025? Today, May 7, 2025, Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 20%, while Phil Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts 15%. bestworld.net/israel-hamas... bestworld.net/israel-hamas...

submitted 47 days ago • 0 comments

May 5, 2025: Jeremy Lichtman's Multi-AI Oracle and Phil Godzin's pgodzinai also forecasted When will there be an attack by India’s military on Pakistan? Update, May 6, 2025: www.tribuneindia.com/news/india/i... tribune.com.pk/story/254434...

submitted 48 days ago • 0 comments

How many conflict deaths will be reported in Ukraine in May, 2025? Here’s what Phil’s pgodzinai bot predicts today: * Less than 500: 1% * Between 500 and 1000: 3% * Between 1000 and 1500: 7%: * Between 1500 and 2000: 14% * Greater than 2000: 75% bestworld.net/ukraine-conf...

submitted 49 days ago • 0 comments

When will there be an attack by India’s military on Pakistan or regions controlled by Pakistan? Here’s what Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today, May 5,2025 * Before May 15: 5% * After May 15 but before May 31: 15% * Not until after May 31: 80% bestworld.net/india-pakist...

submitted 49 days ago • 0 comments

When will there be an attack by India’s military on Pakistan or regions controlled by Pakistan? Here’s what Phil’s pgodzinai predicts today: * Before May 15: 55% * From May 15 through May 31: 20% * Not until after May 31: 25% bestworld.net/india-pakist...

submitted 49 days ago • 0 comments

How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan during 2025? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle bot and Phil Godzin’s pgodzinai bot are side competitors on this Sudan question with the 20 machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition. Below, the current forecasts from the VIEWS competition:

submitted 52 days ago • 1 comment

Latest forecasts on Sudan conflict fatalities for 2025 from the VIEWS machine forecasting competition viewsforecasting.org, Jeremy Lichtman's Multi-AI Oracle bestworld.net/sudan-update..., and Phil Godzin's pgodzinai bestworld.net/sudan-update...

submitted 53 days ago • 1 comment

It’s election day! How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s April 28, 2025 parliamentary election? Phil Godzin forecasts: * less than 130: 57 % * between 130 and 171): 35% * between 172 and 205: 6% * between 206 and 240: 1% * over 240): 1% bestworld.net/updates-from...

submitted 57 days ago • 0 comments