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dolanecon.bsky.social
Economist, Senior Fellow at Niskanen Center. Political economy, social policy, environmental economics and more.
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Who is going to bring in the harvest? And MAGA's effects on rural America don't stop there. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/maga-will-...

1/2 The Jones Act, the original legislation that gave preference to American Ships, was bad. The new one is worse. This is the new one ... www.freightwaves.com/news/lawmake...

Russia's economy in serious trouble, officials say meduza.io/en/feature/2...

@paulkrugman discusses the bad job market for recent college grads open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

1/2 What is the key value of libertarianism? Destruction of the state, or enhancement of liberty itself? @mattzwolinski.bsky.social does a good job of parsing this issue, which is newly important as MAGA captures the remnants of libertarianism. . . . www.theunpopulist.net/p/to-fight-a...

Just the facts, ma'am: New CBO estimates show that Trump's tax bill would take $1,559 from the average family in the lowest income decile and give $12,044 to the average family in the top income decile. www.cbo.gov/system/files...

In this piece for @niskanencenter.bsky.social, Gabe Menchaca criticizes the Trump administration's proposals for civil service reforms and offers some suggestions of his own that would more reliably improve state capacity. www.niskanencenter.org/you-cant-fir...

1/2 Everyone who studies social policy knows about "benefit cliffs" that penalize certain people for earning more. But In the UK, apparently, they have cliffs that dwarf ours. on.ft.com/4kPLGaN

Want to read a story that is even scarier than American politics? on.ft.com/3ZjL3gT

I probably should do more to let people here know about free posts on Substack. So here's today's: paulkrugman.substack.com/p/attack-of-...

1/2 NYT's @bcappelbaum.bsky.social is critical of the charitable deduction. He wants it replaced with a system that incentivizes less wealthy donors, too. ... www.nytimes.com/2025/05/07/o...

According to @dsquareddigest.bsky.social , infrastructure projects are hard not because of NIMBYs, but more because of the structure of the system we have for making sure NIMBYs can't stop those projects. A paradox, no? hypertext.niskanencenter.org/p/the-nimbys...

@mcmegan.bsky.social says "When the AI disruption comes, you should have a fully stocked go bag that you can pick up and move to some safer spot." www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Trump's rule-breaking is going far beyond what even the most pessimistic imagined. These data shows that rule-breaking populist rulers do not make their countries great -- far from it! tiny.cc/pya7001

Is falling fertility a "bigger threat to humanity than climate change", as Elon Musk thinks, or "an achievement misdescribed as a problem." as others think? In this essay, I come down closer to the latter than the former. www.milkenreview.org/articles/the...

Reported US GDP fell by -0.3 percent in Q1, setting off recession fears, but some pointed to healthy 3% growth of "core GDP" as a sign that all is well. This post explains why I am not fully reassured by the growth of "core GDP." talkmarkets.com/content/how-...

From the "That's reassuring" dept: The Trump administration has removed a memorial honoring victims of gun violence from the main atrium of the BAFTE. ... spokesman Chad Gilmartin said that the decision to remove the portraits was not political. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

1/4 @jasonfurman.bsky.social Hi Jason -- some Q's about your FT piece yesterday and analysis of GDP data today. You like final sales to private domestic purchasers, which you call "core GDP," and say it avoids the distortions caused by uptick in Q1 imports. But ...

Worried about empty shelves at Walmart? You should be. Empty harbors = empty shelves.

1/2 Just 19 US households own 1.8% of the nation's wealth. Top 0.1% owns 13.1% of the wealth. Top 1% owns 31%. Bottom 50 % owns 3%. All of these are records -- inequality is increasing more rapidly than ever before. www.wsj.com/economy/1-tr...

"The story of [the demise of] Direct File is a demonstration of both the best of what is possible in government, as well as the the impulses toward mindless administrative vandalism that has defined the Trump regime," says @donmoyn.bsky.social Sad. open.substack.com/pub/donmoyni...

The Trump administration is often said to be following the roadmap of Heritage's "Project 2025." But that roadmap clearly calls for the Fed to single-mindedly pursue price stability and ignore unemployment. That would suggest keeping interest rates high. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

@edwardluce.bsky.social : "The official position of the world’s oldest constitutional republic is that the courts should have no say in who its executive deports and on what grounds. Foreign travellers to the US should beware." on.ft.com/4cygfhv

If "making stuff" is what we want, what is wrong with mining, construction, and farming? Total "making stuff" employment in US is stable, not falling! www.wsj.com/economy/us-m...

Paul Krugman makes 3 good points 1. Trump’s tariffs will hurt, not help, manufacturing 2. If you want to promote mfg, you should use industrial policy, not tariffs 3. Good jobs don’t have to be in manufacturing & manufacturing jobs aren’t necessarily good paulkrugman.substack.com/p/democrats-...

In most years the US barely saves enough to cover investment needs, let alone gov budget deficits. We need the financial inflows that are the mirror image of trade deficits to fill the gap, and would need them even more for successful reindustrialization www.niskanencenter.org/why-a-war-on...

Smoking gun for insider trading? Or coincidence? www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

Russia is not a target of US tariffs, but its economy could be indirectly harmed by Trump's trade war meduza.io/en/feature/2...

Reindustrializing America (if that is what we really want) will need a lot of investment, which low US saving can't supply. We need trade deficits to earn the needed inflows of foreign capital. A war on trade deficits will hurt the project, not help it. www.niskanencenter.org/why-a-war-on...

Econ wonks only. Please help me understand the recent paper on Reciprocal Trade Calculations from the US trade rep: ustr.gov/issue-areas/... Is reciprocal tariff formula correct? Are the parameters used supported by the references? Is anyone publishing an analysis?

Trump wants an investment boom in the US, but: "Economists warn the world could face a growth-sapping investment crunch as companies sit on the sidelines until the trade-war fog clears." www.wsj.com/economy/trad...

Everyone agrees that Trump's new round of tariffs will push consumer prices up, but will it be just a blip, or lasting inflation? My analysis, based in part on the experience with post-Covid inflation, says that it will be more than a blip. dolanecon.blogspot.com/2025/03/why-...

"THE 2025 [V=Dem]REPORT unfortunately finds no signs of the third wave of autocratization cresting or even slowing down. No matter how we slice the data and look at it from different perspectives using different metrics, the overall trend of worsening, stands." www.v-dem.net

Former Fed vice chair Lael Brainard explains who is on track to gain and who will lose by Trump's package of tax and spending cuts. wapo.st/4hSwO93

The world we live in: "When a Big Law partnership is $2mn a year, people can have some principles because the fall isn’t so bad.” The calculation changes entirely, the person says, “when they are making $20mn a year”. on.ft.com/43Au6lh