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jedburgh.bsky.social
Behavioral threat assessment professional, old intel guy, retired paratrooper with an ingrown disposition.
22 posts 24 followers 83 following
Prolific Poster

🧵IR scholars, let's start a thread of what we know that's relevant for a US attack on Iran. Won't change any minds, but might help us teach this crisis and learn new angles. Please add (incl. your own work!), forgive/correct omissions. Nobody can cover everything and it's great to find new work. 1/?

In a more serious country, unilaterally withdrawing from the JCPOA would have immediately ended Trump's first presidency & destroyed the GOP's reputation on national security policy for a generation 🧐

👀 Scoop: Trump and Republicans want USPS to sell off its brand new EVs and chargers. That would mean literally **ripping up post office parking lots** to auction off assets with no private-sector value. It’s buried in the Senate’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.” www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

“‘I just find it fascinating that this student can write an article, a series of articles that are essentially manifestoes, and that’s free speech,’ Ms. Chatman said, referring to Mr. Damsky, ‘but my class can’t be called “Race, Entrepreneurship and Inequality.”’” www.nytimes.com/2025/06/21/u...

Since his first term, Trump has promised action on everything from tax legislation to health care within a fortnight — only for his announcements to materialize months later or not at all.

Iran: Weeks away from having nuclear weapons since 1995

The man accused of killing a Minnesota lawmaker had spiritual roots in a Christian movement whose leaders speak of demon-possessed politicians and that proved its ability to mobilize followers during the January 6 insurrection, Stephanie McCrummen writes.

I'm at the #ansmeeting in Chicago today & this morning's news that the President terminated Commissioner Hanson is being met with serious dismay. An independent regulator with a full commission is necessary for expanding nuclear energy safely. To wit: www.scientificamerican.com/article/kill....

NEW: Alex Jones and Elon Musk are blaming the murder of Democratic lawmaker Melissa Hortman on leftists and the deep state. But David Carlson, who has known the alleged shooter since fourth grade and described him as his best friend, said he “would be offended if people called him a Democrat.”

Under the GOP budget proposal: The lowest income Americans lose $1,600 a year. Billionaires get a giant tax cut.

The best, if admittedly imperfect, answer to the Iranian nuclear program that anyone has come up with so far was the 2015 JCPOA. It led to the elimination of 97% of Iran’s fissile material, the removal of 2/3s of its centrifuges, and the imposition of tight international controls. bit.ly/45jFrXL

On Lawfare Daily, @sranderson.bsky.social spoke to William Banks, Laura Dickinson, and @chrismirasola.bsky.social about the legality of the Trump administration's decision to deploy U.S. troops in L.A., the admin's ambitions to involve the military in immigration enforcement, and more.

For no reason, today I've been thinking about that time a bunch of GOP House members broke into a SCIF where classified hearings were being held with media in tow, refused to give up their devices, and live tweeted from inside. No one was escorted out or put in cuffs. www.wired.com/story/republ...

I have started reading @tomlevenson.bsky.social's "So Very Small." It's a great way to help think about what RFK Jr is doing. SVS starts out before germ theory was formulated. It got me thinking. If you don't know about germ theory, how do you think about disease? 1/

Trump just admitted that his mass deportations are bad for farmers and the economy, and crucially, also admitted that workers who are getting deported are "almost impossible to replace." That's a massive repudiation of MAGA ideology:

At Fort Bragg, Donald Trump crossed a dangerous line. Where are the generals who should be speaking up in defense of the military's rules and traditions, asks @RadioFreeTom?

Trump’s deployment of troops to Los Angeles amid mass deportation protests will likely cost $134 million, the Pentagon’s acting budget chief said.

We obtained lists of alleged gang members used by Venezuelan law enforcement and Interpol. Those lists include some 1,400 names. None of the names of the 238 Venezuelan deportees matched those on the lists. W/ @texastribune.org @cazadoresdefakenews.info, Alianza Rebelde Investiga

The spread of hearsay about nuclear or other strategic weapons tests is not new—but novel digital technologies have added a new layer of complexity to the grapevine. "When Grok is wrong: The risks of AI chatbots spreading misinformation in a crisis," by @kjolvegeland.bsky.social.

Just released, showing a substantial decrease in incidents from 2023. www.fbi.gov/file-reposit...

DOGE will potentially cost the US government $135 billion this year alone due to firings, re-hirings, lost productivity and paid leave for thousands of employees, according to the Partnership for Public Service and acknowledged by Elon Musk's Grok AI assistant.

This is an actual news story in Russian state media and summarizes exactly what the Russians think of Trump and America

Donald Trump’s attacks on science are unfocused and disingenuous. Far from unshackling scientific endeavour, the administration is doing it serious damage. The consequences will be bad for everyone econ.st/3Sld8QW

Stunning. May was brutal for Trump in federal court: 96% loss rate ⚖️. Even GOP-appointed judges have ruled against the admin 72% of the time. District courts are doing their job defending the Constitution. Soon the Supreme Court may be the only court unwilling to defend the rule of law.

The White House just dropped an executive order significantly shaking up operations at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the government’s nuclear safety regulator widely regarded as the “gold standard” for global nuclear power safety operations. I used to cover NRC closely. Here are some notes🧵

The Trump administration will do anything to rid this country of the slightest hint of anti-Semitism, unless anti-Semites have a million dollars available to bribe the president, of course.

It’s still hard for me to believe that after so many years of deranged posts like this, we’ve still never had a serious national conversation about this man’s mental health.

www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/stat...

Russell Vought, acting head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, has canceled plans to introduce new rules designed to limit the ability of US data brokers to sell Americans’ most sensitive data, credit history, and Social Security numbers.

Violent threats and calls for impeachment on social media platforms against US judges have skyrocketed by 327 percent since last year, according to new research from the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism (GPAHE).

Everyone knows it’s a bribe. Everyone knows he’s keeping it. And he knows that everyone knows, which is why he's melting down on Lie Social like the whiney little baby he is.

Of course, this sudden cessation is concurrent with an even more grotesquely unprecedented act of public corruption as Trump travels to accept a $400 million bribe from a foreign power.

NEW: It does matter. Defending the rule of law in the Trump era is essential. Trump cannot ignore constitutional limits on his power — or any court order enforcing those limits. We must keep saying so. Tonight at Law Dork, I make my case:

I'll just take this moment to point out that the US Institute of Peace, just a few weeks ago, contained one of the finest concentrations of US expertise on India and Pakistan, and crisis management in South Asia.

Pirro is the 23rd former Fox employee Trump has named to his administration. She's wildly unqualified to be DC's top prosecutor and was been described by her former executive producer as a "reckless lunatic." Gonna thread some of her lowlights.

Dan tackles what is happening to US soft power. Spoiler alert, it ain’t pretty open.substack.com/pub/danieldr...

Our reporting on the NEA suddenly yanking grants. Affected include: n+1, McSweeney’s, Paris Review, Oxford American, book publishers, nonprofit theaters, more: www.washingtonpost.com/entertainmen...

Trump’s pick for Air Force No. 2 civilian defends past political comments | Democratic lawmakers voiced concern over Lohmeier’s previous calls for “serious consequences” for officials who “hyper-politicized” the military.

According to Kash Patel’s own financial disclosure statement, he pocketed $25,000 from a production company operated by a filmmaker associated with a Kremlin-subsidized propaganda project, a pro-Putin oligarch, and a pro-Kremlin disinformation agent. @davidcorn.bsky.social's NEW video explains:

Scum helping scum. Look for the quid pro quo. apnews.com/article/trum... Trump pardons Nevada politician who paid for cosmetic surgery with funds to honor a slain officer

💫 NEW! Even as the Trump admin seems intent on disappearing environmental data, journalists can find stacks of it elsewhere. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development still offers extensive & comparatively reliable environmental data: https://twp.ai/9PR0xI

Emphasizing again that Trump's claim that it would take "200 years" to give everyone a hearing in immigration court is made up. The immigration court's annual budget is just $840 million and in just the last six months judges have issued 200,000 removal orders and granted relief to 21,000 people.

🚨 New article by our member David Gioe. 'The Shallow State: Trump 2.0 is putting America’s critical intelligence liaison relationships in jeopardy' theins.ru/en/opinion/d...