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larsinthecloud.bsky.social
History, culture, warfare, statebuilding, education - and happy trail hiker.
230 posts 139 followers 110 following
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Posts 12 Comments 38

If the Israel-Iranian conflict leads to a prolonged closing of the Strait of Hormuz, we’re at the beginning of a conflict involving all major powers across the globe. Why? Oil prices and oil supply.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Risk pricing on the supply side of - in effect - global oil prices.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

The head of German Intelligence BND raises the issue of little green men across the Narva river into Estonia under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities. I regard Vilnius and Svalbard as the other two least implausible incursion vectors.

submitted 5 days ago • 2 comments

@anderspucknielsen.dk is right. Threat to Vilnius (drones+cyber), Narva (green men) and Svalbard (navy).

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

The German chancellor currently visits the White House. He might have the unenviable situation as first row viewer of the Trump-government working the press as the social media bonfire between the President and his (former) advisor unfolds.

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

As predicted; a further expense incurred by delays generated by checks and a loss of trust in containers and trucks. Opens the door wide open for non-state (criminal) actors performing check-and-steal stops, similar to St. Petersburg in the late 90’ies.

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

Question is: how did they get drone footage transferred? Was public 4/5G network and RU sim-cards (or eSIM) available for use?

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

Not ‘really’ the case anymore, as the Baltic front can’t be resupplied with air and sealift from nearby allied Finland and Sweden. Vilnius (LT), Narva (EST) and Svalbard (NO) are the areas most exposed to contemporary Russian multidomain warfare.

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

Not sticking to his own 90-day moratorium means that the current US government once again demonstrates their willingness to follow their own, designed measures of ‘days’.

submitted 23 days ago • 0 comments

Economists have phrased the term: knock-on impacts. Seems democratic instilled populations across the West have taken note.

submitted 27 days ago • 0 comments

Exactly.

submitted 28 days ago • 0 comments

Circulating imagery from different angles seem to verify a ballistic hit on the Kerch bridge. Timing the attack to occur just after signing the mineral deal in an indication of reduced tensions between the US and Ukraine in the diplomatic realm.

submitted 43 days ago • 2 comments