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leofeler.com
Chief Economist at Numerator and Visiting Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Previously UCLA Anderson Forecast & Johns Hopkins. I write about consumer behavior and macroeconomics. Website: leofeler.com. Chicago Opinions are my own
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We asked 2,000 representative US households what one word they would use to describe the United States. We asked 1,000 representative Canadian households what one word they would use to describe Canada. Here are the results from our latest survey (May 1-7):

submitted 24 days ago • 1 comment

Thanks for featuring our FEDS note, @adamshap.bsky.social!

submitted 25 days ago • 1 comment

It's a good day to be a Leo from Chicago!

submitted 28 days ago • 0 comments

"What one word would you use to describe the world today?" Here is a word cloud of the responses of 1,000 representative US households from Numerator panel data.

submitted 48 days ago • 0 comments

Powerful and important opinion piece by David Brooks: What’s Happening Is Not Normal. America Needs an Uprising That Is Not Normal. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/17/o...

submitted 49 days ago • 0 comments

Thanks to ABCNews for the opportunity to talk about tariffs, consumers & stocks Sec. Bessent: happy to share w/ you Numerator's data so you can hear what 150,000 US households think about the market going down & how they're planning to cut back discretionary purchases abcnews.go.com/US/video/mar...

submitted 59 days ago • 0 comments

Thanks to @zhoyoyo.bsky.social, @pbump.com, @crampell.bsky.social for featuring Numerator data in this tracker. At Numerator, not only do we expect food prices to go up b/c of tariffs, we're also hearing from our panelists that high prices are what they're most concerned about for the year ahead.

submitted 63 days ago • 0 comments

I'm Jewish, named after my uncle who was executed by the Nazis in a forced labor camp in Poland. My gradfather died in the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising. Trump's use of antisemitism as a smokescreen to underminine free speech and destroy academic research is reprehensible. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/p...

submitted 69 days ago • 3 comments

@tracyalloway.bsky.social: to pay down the US deficit or fund regressive tax cuts?

submitted 71 days ago • 1 comment

I made a pun in the newsletter that was so bad no one even bothered to be like “that was a terrible pun.”

submitted 82 days ago • 21 comments

Americans eat far less healthily at the end of the year than they do in January. s2.washingtonpost.com/camp-rw/?tra...

submitted 82 days ago • 22 comments

@weisenthal.bsky.social can we really call this a "tariff negotiating strategy"? It seems to be more chaos, make things up as you go, than strategy.

submitted 90 days ago • 0 comments

Econ friends with BLS experience: I'm getting close to replicating the BLS methodology to calculate the CPI for all the items we track at Numerator. This will be items purchased from retailers across the US. If anyone with BLS experience can help, please DM me. #econsky

submitted 121 days ago • 0 comments

Econ friends with BLS experience: I'm getting close to replicating the BLS methodology to calculate the CPI for all the items we track at Numerator. This will be items purchased from retailers across the US. If anyone with BLS experience can help, please DM me. #econsky @kairyssdal.bsky.social

submitted 121 days ago • 0 comments

What explains the "vibecession"? We asked consumers how they were feeling, and then we used their verified retail purchases to track their consumption. Is it just "vibes" or are consumers truly worse off compared with 2019? #econsky h/t @kyla.bsky.social hbr.org/2025/01/rese...

submitted 125 days ago • 2 comments

Will the Trump Administration reignite inflation? Yes, most likely. Full write-up here: www.macrobond.com/insights/out...

submitted 141 days ago • 0 comments

Thanks to @economist.com for reporting on our work (joint with @kevinrinz.bsky.social and Jack Chylak): www.economist.com/united-state...

submitted 142 days ago • 1 comment

Toady in @briefingbook.bsky.social, @leofeler.com, Jack Chylak, and I dig into consumer sentiment changes since the election. As expected, Republicans started liking the economy right after the election, and Democrats started hating it. But what it’s going on below the surface?

submitted 143 days ago • 1 comment

Republicans are optimistic about the future. But everyone's biggest concern is still inflation. People will be quickly disillusioned if the Trump administration's policies reignite inflation. www.briefingbook.info/p/digging-in..., with @kevinrinz.bsky.social and Jack Chylak

submitted 143 days ago • 0 comments

We now have causal real-world analysis that Ozempic and other GLP-1 medications lower snack purchases by 5% (8% if you're rich). Chips & baked goods take the biggest hit. Yogurt & Slim Jim's are unaffected. The decline is about $416 per year per person. youtube.com/shorts/qsCqU...

submitted 156 days ago • 4 comments

Ozempic economics: How GLP-1s will disrupt the economy in 2025 wapo.st/3BSKbXY

submitted 156 days ago • 12 comments

How households with at least one member taking GLP-1s are changing their shopping habits: overall grocery spending goes down ~6%, spending on chips/savory snacks falls ~11% wapo.st/3BSKbXY

submitted 156 days ago • 17 comments

Thrilled to be working with @jurawho.bsky.social and @leofeler.com on such an important topic! The paper documents how purchasing patterns change with adoption of GLP-1 medications, exploring changes across key dimensions like motivation, age, and income.

submitted 156 days ago • 0 comments

🚨Closing out 2024 with a new paper with @hristakeva.bsky.social and @leofeler.com: How GLP-1 medications like Ozempic are reshaping food demand and changing the rules of the game for the food industry.

submitted 156 days ago • 2 comments