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Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller says China's failure "opens up all manner of action." Translation: More unpredictable, potentially damaging unilateral moves are likely coming. Strap in. It's going to be a bumpy ride for the economy.

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

Cleveland-Cliffs shares surge on the 50% tariff news. Short-term market reaction is understandable, but the long-term economic reality of these kinds of massive tariffs on input goods is far less positive for the broader economy.

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

Danielle DiMartino Booth: a recession is very likely due to consistent private sector job losses and an anticipated rise in the unemployment rate. Should listen to working Americans, 65% of whom expect unemployment to climb, as they already feel the economy is in recession

submitted 22 days ago • 0 comments

Structured Finance Association CEO Michael Bright on returning Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the private sector: The push for profit could undermine mortgage market safety, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. We need guardrails to ensure they focus on their core mission.

submitted 22 days ago • 0 comments

KKR's Mattia Caprioli: a lot of volatility, but many positive signs in Europe for private markets. Germany's €500B fiscal shift for infrastructure is a significant contribution to GDP and a "renaissance" for the continent. Private capital plays a key role in boosting competitiveness.

submitted 22 days ago • 0 comments

Michael Schumacher (Wells Fargo) on Fed's hold: The Fed is likely to remain on hold due to concerns over tariffs and spending. Inflation may persist longer than expected. No reason for the Fed to move soon, meaning Treasury bond buyers shouldn't expect big rate cuts for capital gains.

submitted 22 days ago • 0 comments

Japan's Finance Ministry is pushing China to ease capital controls, asking Beijing to raise QDII quotas. The aim is to attract Chinese investors' appetite for Japanese securities, leveraging China's piled-up funds amid a slumping property sector & stagnating economy.

submitted 38 days ago • 0 comments

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink observes trillions of dollars in idle cash globally amid uncertainty. He points to €12T in European bank accounts & $11T in US money funds, stating, "When there is uncertainty, you are going to keep more and more money in cash."

submitted 38 days ago • 0 comments

US annual inflation slowed to 2.3% in April (vs 2.4% Mar), but core inflation rose to 2.8% (vs 2.4% Mar). Economists note tariff impact hasn't fully shown & expect price increases later. Consumers show anxiety, with inflation expectations rising to 6.5%.

submitted 38 days ago • 0 comments

China and the US have agreed to remove most tariffs imposed since April 2. This breakthrough lowers US additional duties on Chinese goods to 30% & Chinese duties on US imports to 10%. US Treasury Sec Scott Bessent: "We have substantially moved down the tariff levels."

submitted 38 days ago • 0 comments

China's factory-gate prices fell 2.7% in April, the steepest drop in six months, while consumer prices fell for a third straight month (-0.1%). This deepening deflation underlines the need for more stimulus as the economy faces pressure from trade barriers.

submitted 40 days ago • 0 comments

US and China agree to 90-day tariff relief, slashing duties significantly (US 145% to 30%, China 125% to 10%). Market reaction is swift: S&P futures +2.7%, Nasdaq +3.8%, dollar +0.9%, gold -3%, oil +3%. Analysts see it as "substantial relief".

submitted 40 days ago • 0 comments

As part of efforts to support China's property market, banks have approved ~6.7 trillion yuan (~$926 billion) in loans for "whitelist" housing projects. This covers nearly 16 million units and aims to ensure timely project completion, boosting confidence in the sector.

submitted 40 days ago • 0 comments

Norway's wealth fund has sold all its fixed income holdings in Mexico's Pemex, citing an unacceptable risk of corruption.

submitted 40 days ago • 0 comments

China stocks rebounded today, driven by Beijing's vows of further support for the economy. The CSI300 and Shanghai Composite indices both rose 0.2% by midday. A hedge fund manager suggests China's bear market is entering its final stage, with "downward momentum... nearly exhausted."

submitted 40 days ago • 0 comments

Experts question the feasibility of Gulf states' massive US investment pledges amid falling oil prices. Analysts call pledges "unrealistically huge," especially for Saudi Arabia which needs ~$91 oil to balance its budget (current price ~$65).

submitted 40 days ago • 0 comments

OPEC+ will boost oil output by 411k bpd in June (part of 960k total since April). Brent crude initially fell below $60/barrel following the news, now trading around $63. This offers potential price relief for import-reliant Asia, though US-China trade doubts linger.

submitted 40 days ago • 0 comments

Saudi Aramco's total Q1 2025 dividend fell to $21.36 billion ($31B last year), primarily due to a sharp cut in the performance-linked payout. This reduction lowers revenue for the Saudi gov't. GS estimates the gov't deficit could rise significantly if oil prices stay around $62/barrel.

submitted 40 days ago • 0 comments

Saudi oil giant Aramco reported a 4.6% yoy drop in Q1 profit to $26.01 billion. The company cited lower sales and higher op costs as economic uncertainty impacted crude markets. This figure beat a company-provided analyst estimate of $25.36 billion.

submitted 40 days ago • 0 comments

Tariffs are causing Corporate America to pull back earnings guidance for the rest of the year, including GM, Heinz, and Snap, due to the trade war's uncertainty and impact on their bottom lines.

submitted 43 days ago • 0 comments

Singapore Ambassador on Trump's trade war: While Trump promised disruption and delivered, everyone is still shocked by the speed and the scope of his policy changes.

submitted 43 days ago • 0 comments

Robert Kaplan (Goldman Sachs) on Fed action trigger: the Fed would only be compelled to cut rates if the economy slowed so significantly that the unemployment rate began to either move up or spike up. This hasn't happened yet.

submitted 43 days ago • 0 comments

Nouriel Roubini on trade war: market discipline, specifically the "bond vigilantes", will force Trump to back down. Even with de-escalation, trade deals should feature 10-15% tariffs for most countries and 60% on China, as Trump announced in the campaign. Shallow recession is highly likely.

submitted 43 days ago • 0 comments

Nouriel Roubini on tech vs tariffs: tech "trumps tariffs" and "trumps Trump." US leadership in future technologies implies that tariffs' impact doesn't matter over the medium term. Whatever Trump currently does "doesn't matter."

submitted 43 days ago • 0 comments

Commerce Sec Lutnick on tariff baseline: the 10% tariff rate is the low rate intended for countries like the UK that have a balanced trade with the US. Other countries should expect a higher rate.

submitted 43 days ago • 0 comments

Jerome Powell on Fed rate cuts: "We don't have to be in a hurry. The economy is is has been resilient and is doing fairly well. Our policies is well positioned. The costs of waiting to see further are are fairly low."

submitted 44 days ago • 1 comment

Maersk CEO on trade war: company is seeing US-China shipping volume down 30-40%. There is no easy substitution for a lot of these products outside China/US. This could increase chance of inflation in the US.

submitted 44 days ago • 0 comments

Peter Orszag on Fed decision: don't expect any Fed rate cuts in 2025. Any cuts would be "bad news", signaling concern about the economy rather than confidence in inflation falling. The Fed is in a "tough spot"

submitted 44 days ago • 0 comments

Lazard CEO Peter Orszag on China Tariffs: average tariff rate on China will settle between 30-50%, either via a future deal or through exemptions. Wildly varying rates create very strong incentives for transshipment, the monitoring of which is very difficult.

submitted 44 days ago • 0 comments

Ken Rogoff on global pushback on US dollar: other countries dislike the US political control gained through dollar dominance. It is not just China and Russia, Europeans hate it too.

submitted 44 days ago • 0 comments

Joe Kernen: Is this an orchestrated decline for the US dollar? Ken Rogoff: The decline in USD's global footprint has been in play for more than a decade. We are at the beginning of USD coming down from its dominant position. The transition period will take a long time.

submitted 44 days ago • 0 comments

PIMCO on US dollar: it will remain the reserve currency and safe haven, backed by the world's most liquid treasury market. Despite potential overvaluation, it won't lose status as there's no alternative for "moving trillions".

submitted 44 days ago • 0 comments

PIMCO CEO Emmanuel Roman notes it's hard to assess the exact impact of tariffs without knowing the "end game." They use scenario analysis, but the "overwhelming likelihood" is high tariffs will continue for the foreseeable future.

submitted 44 days ago • 0 comments

Blackstone CEO on US trade war: Sees "contours of a deal" emerging for most countries with potential tariffs around 10%, offset by reduced non-tariff barriers. Expects deals soon with countries like UK, India, Japan, or Korea, providing needed certainty for investors

submitted 44 days ago • 0 comments