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⚡ UK severe weather | Thunderstorm outlooks & long-range forecasts 📊 Science over hype | Data over drama
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June is men’s mental health month. Late evening/overnight is often when people struggle the most. Quick mental health check in; ❤️- Doing great 🧡- Doing pretty good 💛- Okay, I guess 💚- Starting to struggle 💙- Really having a hard time 💜- I need to reach out for help

THU 05 JUN 25 Following behind an occluded front surface heating may generate 300-600J/KG of CAPE, enough to produce some heavy showers. Convection overall is quite shallow so whilst the lightning risk is lower overall, a few sporadic strikes cannot be ruled out.

Some locally very severe weather is likely across central Europe in the next few hours as severe thunderstorms develop. Very large hail & strong damaging wind gusts are possible within these cells.

A long way out but there's growing support for a rather unstable plume of hot air to move up through France and into the UK next week. Potential for some hot & thundery weather if this comes off, though these are on the more extreme end of the ensembles for now.

Thunderstorms are developing across Europe this evening with the potential for locally severe weather. The level 3 area from ESTOFEX covering NE Switzerland into S Germany and Czechia is warning of “large swathes” of extremely large hail & severe wind gusts.

There is one consistent, irrefutable fact, it doesn’t matter where on the planet you are, temperatures are higher today than at any point in human history. June 21st is #ShowYourStripes day.

For the first time in recorded history, the monthly average Co2 at Mauna Loa has exceeded >440 ppm. This is likely higher than at any point in the last 3.3 million years. Co2 first breached this threshold initially in March.

This map shows all wildfires across the planet over the past 7 days, yellow dots show fires that are currently active. Canada & Africa are the obvious hot spots. Climate change is increasing the intensity and likelihood of wildfires. The source of ignition is irrelevant.

The anticipated switch to settled/hot weather has been pushed back due to a slower MJO evolution. Despite the rise in AAM, without a coherent eastward progressing MJO we fall short on retrogressing the pattern, i.e remaining mobile/unsettled with hot spells likely to be brief.

Following on from the recent record breaking SST's across NE Europe the warmest anomalies have shifted southwest in response to changing weather patterns. The Mediterranean is currently undergoing some rather rapid heating.

Provisional figures show Spring 2025 has been both the warmest & sunniest on recorded. ☀️ 653.3 hours, 43% above average 🌡️ Mean temperature of 9.5°C, 1.4°C above average 🌧️ Driest spring for 100 years

“Climate change will manifest as a series of disasters viewed through phones with footage that gets closer and closer to where you live until you’re the one filming it.” – unknown

The comments on this post on the other platform are pretty much as unhinged as you’d expect.

The universe is so vast, so massive, explosions, implosions, gravity, worm holes, billions of light years of empty space, supernovas, hot, cold, dense. Stars dying, stars being born, over and over again, and yet, today I went to work in order to be able to afford food. What are we doing.

Here’s a before & after view after the village of Batten in Switzerland was destroyed by a glacial collapse. Fortunately, the town had been evacuated long before disaster struck. Climate change likely had a role in this.

As of May 27th the UK has had 99 wildfires which have so far burned a total of 33,072 hectares or 127 square miles of land. This year has already beaten the previous full year record set in 2019. Unprecedented.

Wildfires in Manitoba, Canada have triggered the evacuation of over 17,000 people. These aerial shots are unbelievable.

Global sea surface temperatures are currently the third highest on record. A new study suggests an 86% likelihood that 1 year in the next 5 will breach 1.5°C globally. There is a 1% chance of a 2°C year vs pre-industrial temperatures. 2024 was the hottest in the 175-year record

The overnight ECM is signalling some very concerning heat across Spain, France & indeed Europe with temperatures some 10-16°C above average for the time of year. A fair way off but needs watching.

Spring 2025 is officially the sunniest on record beating 2020 in the UK. Here's how it looks in recorded history against other springs since 1910. 2020 and 2025 both in a league of their own above any other spring before. The only springs with more than 600+ hrs of sun.

ChatGPT electric use: 1 Day: Enough to charge 8 MILLION mobile phones 1 week: 4 times the electric used during the Super-bowl (inc. all TVs) 1 month: 332,000 electric vehicles, enough to run Times Square for 20 years. 1 year? More electric than 117 countries combined.

Even the darkest of voids require rest!

Damp, wet, miserable, and that’s just me! The weather isn’t too good either this afternoon 🌧️

Here's a fantastic animation showing just how quickly the intense sea surface temperature anomalies around the UK, Ireland & Iceland developed. Intensity has waned somewhat in more recent days but there remains a considerable patch >4°C above average.

TUE 27 MAY 25 Following on behind an area of rainfall will be the potential for thunderstorms. Dry air aloft may limit storm activity but there is the potential for one or two more explosive cells to develop across Ireland which could exhibit supercellular characteristics.

Low pressure slayyy what? 💅 Low pressure is cooking over the next few days with bands of rain pushing in from the west, potential for >100MM of rainfall across western Scotland for example. Drier in the S/SE.

Climate change deniers are the flat earthers of a dying planet except their delusion isn’t harmless, it’s a death cult dragging everyone down with them. Blind and historically complicit. Future generations will view them the same way we view plague doctors who licked wounds.

Hundreds of new followers in the last day or two, welcome! It seems climate change related things are quite popular here, I do tend to focus more on short-long term weather in general, thunderstorm risks etc for the UK but I do throw in some climate stuff too.

It's late May - the time of year when the Keeling Curve usually reaches its annual peak. This means Earth is likely now - *over this last week* - experiencing higher levels of atmospheric CO2 than at any point over the last *MILLION YEARS*!

Tak a deep breath.. We’re breathin air that’s trekked aw the way fae the frozen depths o’ canada, sailed the stormy atlantic, an’ noo it’s right doon yer windpipe. that’s no just air, that’s a wee arctic adventure ye’re inhalin 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

This is phenomenal. Sea surface temperatures are >5C above average to the west of the UK and around Iceland. It's the strongest area of anomalous warmth on the planet at the moment. It's the warmest in recorded history for northwest Europe.

The worldview of sea surface temperatures really does put into perspective how extreme the anomalous warmth is off the coast of Ireland. It's the biggest & most intense marine heatwave on the planet, some >5°C above normal. Enhanced rainfall & hotter heatwaves a possible impact.