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nilsredeker.bsky.social
Deputy Director of Jacques Delors Centre at the Hertie School Berlin think-tanking on European economic policy. | wwww.delorscentre.eu | www.nilsredeker.net
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Europe needs a summer break!

🧵 Yesterday’s FT piece reported the EU is preparing to turn up the retaliatory heat as the July 9 deadline nears, and with it the threat of 50% tariffs on EU goods. www.ft.com/content/3d3...

Highly recommended read by @ph-jaeg.bsky.social! The Clean Industrial Deal was a big step toward a smart and muscular EU green industrial strategy. Now it’s at risk of slipping through the cracks of half-hearted implementation. Philipp has some good ideas for avoiding that.

The Clean Industrial Deal is a flagship initiative of vdLeyen's 2nd term. It's a good strategy paper - but will its implementation live up to its promises? It's still early, but first indicators, incl. first action plans, are not encouraging. New policy brief w/ recommendations out today 🧵(1/n)

Also to the European public - with the oil prices rising due to the Israel-Iran war, many media articles in Germany still speak about driving in general potentially becoming much more expensive. Well, not all driving, lads.

According to BloombergNEF, 1 in 4 cars sold globally in 2025 is going to be electric - and Chinese EV sales alone are about to surpass *total* car sales in the US. Hard to shake the feeling that the scale of this shift hasn’t really sunk in for EU policymakers.

Wow - looks like the real VDL is back Mega-hawkish speech on China at G7 - accuses it of intentionally making the world reliant on rare earths "We are seeing a new China shock - as China's economy slows down, Beijing floods global markets with subsidised overcapacity its own market cannot absorb"

Sander is right. If the Commission doesn’t think it can use state aid rules to steer member states toward common priorities, then the financial leg of the Clean Industrial Deal boils down to praying for a miracle in the next EU budget. Not exactly a strategy.

Spot-on take on Germany’s stance on the next EU budget. In the end, the Competitiveness Fund will carry lots of the modernization load - so Berlin will have to move either on cohesion cuts or overall size if it’s serious. But broad support & few red lines make for a decent starting line.

“Ribera’s team argues it is not possible to force member states to prioritise European goods through state-aid rules” What an admission of weakness and lack of creativity from the Commission. The basic implication then is to leave everything as is and “assess options”.

Not a helpful debate. If the EU is serious about clean industrial strategy, all tools need to be on the table. Instead of clutching its pearls over production aid or Buy EU rules, the EU needs a sector-by-sector discussion on where and how they could be useful. on.ft.com/4k7mefL

Not a helpful debate. If the EU is serious about clean industrial strategy, all tools need to be on the table. Instead of clutching its pearls over production aid or Buy EU rules, the EU needs a sector-by-sector discussion on where and how they could be useful. on.ft.com/4k7mefL

This week in Germany, a court ruled that the rejection of three migrants at the German border violated EU law. The interior minister, supported by the chancellor, sees no reason to change his policy. The judges on the case are facing defamation and threats. Worrying development for the rule of law.

Today, a German judges’ association published a stern criticism of the Merz’ governments attitude towards the rule of law in the area of migration, calling on it to abide by binding EU law. 1/ www.neuerichter.de/richterverba...

You know I once had an actual job that involved making finance dad jokes?

📆 Europe’s savings could fuel its future, but they aren’t flowing where they’re needed most. We need a real Savings and Investment Union. But how do we get there? Join us next Tuesday at 4:30pm CET at the @hertieschool.bsky.social or online on Zoom to discuss 👉 www.delorscentre.eu/en/events-at...

Very happy that @romyha.bsky.social has joined our team as Policy Fellow for EU Fiscal and Investment Policy. Make sure to follow her for all things related to cohesion, MFF and beyond!

Thrilled to have @romyha.bsky.social on board as the newest member of our think tank team! She’ll be covering all things EU budget, fiscal policy, and investment. Strongly recommend hitting that follow button!

The EU has published the first results of its trade diversion monitoring exercise In the month to May 25th, imports of LEDs shot up 156% while their price fell 65%. Industrial robots up by 315%, with a 35% fall in price. Some steel products are up more than 1,000% with an 86% fall in price

I gave my two cents on @shahinvallee.bsky.social piece in the comments below - would anyone else kindly be interested in piping up? @agathedemarais.bsky.social @alanbeattie.bsky.social (and please @bsky.app fix your engagement algorithm!!)

Except for Germany, none of the big EU economies are biting on the new escape clause for extra deficit-financed defense spending. Good for fiscal sustainability - but also means we still lack answers for some big questions around EU defense funding. Expect this to resurface after the NATO summit.

IEA World Energy Investment Report: As always, a lot of interesting data & figures. While renewable energy investment increases, fossil energy investment doesn't decline.

Highly recommended piece by @shahinvallee.bsky.social and some good points for discussion by @aleichthammer.bsky.social in the comments below! 👇

Btw, this would also be a good place to think seriously about how harmonize eligibility criteria for fiscal support across the EU - including some form of Buy European preference. Done right, this would create a massive demand pull across the Single Market - without the need for picking any winners

A couple of points. The distinction some European economists draw between “mid” and “high-tech” is artificial in reality. ASML grew out of gold old Philips. Airbus out of legacy plane builders. Germanys growing EV strength is driven by …drumroll… Its existing carmakers and Mittelstand. 1/

We (🇧🇪) did a thing.

Btw, this would also be a good place to think seriously about how harmonize eligibility criteria for fiscal support across the EU - including some form of Buy European preference. Done right, this would create a massive demand pull across the Single Market - without the need for picking any winners

The German government just put forward a 75% tax write-off for corporate EV purchases. Not a bad bit of industrial policy - company cars make up 60% of new registrations in the EU and are still trailing private households on electrification.

Since Donald Trump's election, Germany's Dax is on a tear, leaving the S&P500 in the dust.

🇵🇱⚖️🗳️ The rule of law repair process in Poland just got incredibly more difficult. I expect President Nawrocki to be even less cooperative than Duda, as Nawrocki will work hard for a PiS parliamentary election victory. Tough times ahead. 1/

Bevor die Koalition jetzt ins offene Workshoppen darüber geht, was man mit den Einnahmen einer neuen Digitalabgabe alles finanzieren könnte, sollte man sich kurz vergegenwärtigen, dass die EU-Kommission gerade plant, genau eine solche Abgabe als neues Eigenmittel für den EU-Haushalt vorzuschlagen 1/

How can the policy agendas of the Banking Union & the Capital Markets Union be better aligned? Let's discuss with Claudia Buch, Chair of the Supervisory Board of @ecb.europa.eu, and Verena Ross, Chair of #ESMA, on 10/06 at the @hertieschool.bsky.social and online: www.delorscentre.eu/en/events-at...

Das sind sehr gute Nachrichten aus dem @bmf-bund.de! Herzlichen Glückwunsch und viel Erfolg an @suedekum.bsky.social!

Absolutely spot-on piece by @alanbeattie.bsky.social: “The court ruling provides an excellent opportunity for the EU to regroup, screw up its courage, and recognise that Trump is far more vulnerable than his bluster suggests.” on.ft.com/4kLl1vj

I've been digesting the court ruling and here are the implications for Europe. The 'reciprocal' tariffs are out, so no more 10 per cent general tariff for all countries. Sectoral tariffs on autos and steel/aluminum still in place so this doesn't affect the US-UK 'deal'. For the EU though..1/x

Notable industrial policy news out of Germany: According to Handelsblatt, homegrown semiconductor start-up FMC is eyeing to put up its first production site in eastern Germany - if the government is willing to chip in €1.3 billion in support. This points to a bigger story on two fronts:

Smart new paper by @lucas-res-car.bsky.social on how to design the much-discussed Competitiveness Fund in the next EU budget.

Opportunities for Germany.