Profile avatar
ruthcurtice.bsky.social
Chief Executive, Resolution Foundation
148 posts 1,525 followers 299 following
Regular Contributor
Active Commenter

Great thread from Louise on the bill. 13 week wait good news. DWP press notice is a further masterclass in conflation between people out of work and PIP, which has NOTHING to do with work status.

As the dust settles, spending review leaves me seriously doubting this analysis we published suggesting employment support could deliver an extra 50k people onto work. If there is no new money for DWP how will radical new employment support be delivered? www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

This chart shows how the government's affordable homes commitment compares to previous levels of funding. More than since the financial crisis, but slightly lower in real terms than under the last Labour government.

As we crunch the numbers, it is basically clear that the winners are health and defence (and not much else). Of the real growth in spending over the next three years 90% of the increase in day to day spending goes to health; and for capital spending almost 4/5ths goes on defence.

This table confirms no change to the RDEL envelope, and a small reprofiling of the CDEL envelope - so basically spending review delivered within the totals Treasury had available.

Confirmation in the Treasury documents that the growth rate for health is 2.8% over the next three years, and 3.0% for NHS.

And we're off. Rachel Reeves stands up to deliver the spending review....

Big day in Westminster today. But big implications for the whole country. A "zero-based" spending review means the government has been through all public spending and decided its priorities line by line. Follow for analysis through the day.

This morning’s labour market stats mark another month of a weakening jobs market and slowing pay growth. Thread and charts from me and @nyecominetti.bsky.social...

Today the Government announced that Winter Fuel Payment eligibility will be extended to all pensioners with income below £35,000, with the payments to be restored from this winter. A quick thread on what this means and how it will work...

Big change of heart from the government on winter fuel. Last winter just over 10% of pensioners got winter fuel, this winter it will be over three quarters. At Resolution, we estimate that 43% of the winners from today's announcement are in the top half of the income distribution.

Rumours that health has been settled at 2.8% would imply everyone else apart from health, defence and education at getting on average basically flat real per person

With the Spending Review now a week away, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social and @ruthcurtice.bsky.social break down five things to look out for next week: buff.ly/BLx1kng

Looking forward to hosting this amazing panel on Friday. Do join us if you can: should be a great conversation @hetanshah.bsky.social @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @dhnnjyn.bsky.social yorkfestivalofideas.com/2025/calenda...

In one chart - why a government focused on living standards for all would not have winter fuel U-turn as the priority.

Blog on the government's three big benefit battles. I fear the brutal maths means concessions on winter fuel mean less money for disability and child poverty. Looking at living standards trends across the piece - children would be the priority. www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/what...

Not clear precisely what Kier Starmer has actually announced on winter fuel payments. The most sensible thing would be to link eligibility to a winder range of benefits that just pension credit, cost £300m and extend winter fuel payments to 1.3 million more pensioners.

Government spokesman on our analysis today says it paints a "partial picture". Better than no picture! We shouldn't have to estimate the economic benefit of government reforms - they should tell us, before they ask MPs to vote. on.ft.com/4muusku