The best case scenario is that a pause in the war allows for diplomacy to resume. Iran, knowing that a return to military obliteration is the alternative, negotiates a surrender of its enriched uranium & transforms its nuclear work into an exclusively civil programme under international supervision. - ThreadSky

adamjschwarz.bsky.social • 3 days ago

The best case scenario is that a pause in the war allows for diplomacy to resume. Iran, knowing that a return to military obliteration is the alternative, negotiates a surrender of its enriched uranium & transforms its nuclear work into an exclusively civil programme under international supervision.

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keithl03.bsky.social•3 days ago

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, referred to Israel as the "Small Satan" and a "cancerous tumor," and called for supporting Palestinian groups to "abolish the infidel Zionists". Netanyahu wants them gone.

keithl03.bsky.social•3 days ago

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called Israel a "malignant cancerous tumor" that needs to be removed and has predicted the end of the "Zionist regime"

keithl03.bsky.social•3 days ago

Iranian leadership has consistently expressed a desire for Israel's destruction or elimination since the 1979 revolution, adopting a strong anti-Israel stance. This is their current policy towards Israel. Your best case scenario seems highly unlikely with this current regime.

wakeylass.bsky.social•3 days ago

Have you seen this 👇😢

https://bsky.app/profile/yasharali.bsky.social/post/3lschv2saqc2y

adamjschwarz.bsky.social•3 days ago

Two other possible scenarios:

1. Trump agrees weak deal without adequate safeguards on Iran's nuke prgramme as he wants a quick win. Threat of conflict/Iran constructing a nuke remains.

2. Trump/West fail to agree a deal with Iran. Israel resumes strikes to continue regime destabilisation/change.

whodiddoneit.bsky.social•3 days ago

3. Trump gets peace prize and doesn’t care what happens after he passes on to that shitty green in New Jersey.

mike-in-the-box.bsky.social•3 days ago

Excellent analysis, thank you. But perhaps the most important point, at this juncture, is that Trump's post was wildly delusional nonsense. If a disheveled man on the street starts flinging feces and claiming that he's Elvis, our first reaction probably shouldn't be assessing his singing ability.

nicokow.bsky.social•3 days ago

Thank you!

adamjschwarz.bsky.social•3 days ago

These two are, unfortunately, far more likely than the 'best case' scenario of Iran giving up its nuke ambitions.

The Ayatollah's regime has been degraded and humiliated. It will feel far more vulnerable than ever before, likely reinforcing the belief that its survival depends on acquiring nukes.

ggdepa.bsky.social•2 days ago

It is not a belief. It is fact. And sound policy from their perspective. Have you seen anyone mess with North-Korea recently? Making a deal you might say might be their better option? They did make a deal. And then Trump came and shredded the deal...

darkglade.bsky.social•3 days ago

Yup, and that insecurity will make them much more likely to USE said nukes too...

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